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2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

Science Vol. $118,648 50 traders

1st hottest87%
3rd hottest5%
2nd hottest6%
4th or lower1%
$118,648 Vol. Science

Outcomes

4
Chance
1st hottest
79% ▼ 7
2nd hottest
6% ▲ 4
3rd hottest
7% ▲ 3
4th or lower
1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x82c7…f1f8 BUY No $22.00 16m ago
  • 0xfd1c…4c80 BUY Yes $1.54 1h ago
  • 0xfd1c…4c80 BUY No $1.50 1h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $4.30 1h ago
  • 0x7eec…c8ed SELL Yes $0.00 1h ago
  • 0x7eec…c8ed SELL Yes $4.24 1h ago
  • 0x7eec…c8ed SELL Yes $0.26 1h ago
  • 0x7eec…c8ed BUY No $4.74 1h ago
  • 0x7eec…c8ed BUY No $4.99 1h ago
  • 0xa113…93f4 BUY Yes $4.00 1h ago
  • 0xa113…93f4 BUY Yes $1.00 1h ago
  • 0xa113…93f4 SELL Yes $4.30 1h ago
  • 0xa113…93f4 BUY Yes $20.00 1h ago
  • 0xa113…93f4 SELL Yes $21.50 1h ago
  • 0xa39f…fbdb SELL Yes $0.01 2h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $26.10 3h ago
  • 0x52be…945c SELL Yes $0.78 4h ago
  • 0x52be…945c SELL Yes $0.01 4h ago
  • 0x82c7…f1f8 BUY No $10.78 7h ago
  • 0x43cb…84df BUY Yes $1.56 7h ago
  • 0x43cb…84df BUY Yes $3.48 7h ago
  • 0x43cb…84df BUY Yes $0.23 7h ago
  • 0x074c…771c SELL No $0.68 7h ago
  • 0xfd17…e9ed BUY Yes $5.00 8h ago
  • 0x82c7…f1f8 BUY No $6.58 8h ago
  • 0x82c7…f1f8 BUY No $3.90 8h ago
  • 0x5c0a…a2c3 BUY Yes $8.42 9h ago
  • 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL No $0.94 9h ago
  • 0xbced…84e9 SELL Yes $1.02 9h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $9.28 16h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $11.14 16h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $49.24 16h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $13.36 16h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $16.02 16h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $55.71 16h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $65.98 17h ago
  • 0x8fae…2f76 BUY Yes $4.50 17h ago
  • 0xbd14…76b4 SELL Yes $12.90 17h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL No $104.34 17h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $102.60 17h ago

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record. Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.

Comments

ballzi. 22h ago

this is going to be a very emotional rollercoaster for some in about 2 weeks