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July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Science Vol. $48,638 50 traders

1.25–1.29ºC6%
1.20–1.24ºC89%
<1.10ºC1%
1.15–1.19ºC7%
$48,638 Vol. Science

Outcomes

6
Chance
<1.10ºC
1% ▲ 1
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
7% ▲ 4
1.20–1.24ºC
81% ▲ 4
1.25–1.29ºC
5% ▼ 4
>1.29ºC
3% ▲ 2

Recent trades

40
  • 0x13d3…415e SELL Yes $1.50 9h ago
  • 0x6ef8…0516 BUY No $1.00 10h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $50.71 13h ago
  • 0x988e…d0d0 SELL Yes $1.04 14h ago
  • 0xadb5…e421 SELL Yes $0.02 16h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $4.95 18h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $42.12 18h ago
  • 0x155d…cc16 BUY No $5.00 18h ago
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY Yes $0.72 18h ago
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY Yes $4.00 18h ago
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY No $3.80 18h ago
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY Yes $14.96 18h ago
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY Yes $0.44 18h ago
  • 0x7eec…c8ed SELL Yes $0.01 18h ago
  • 0xf23e…fab9 BUY Yes $0.44 18h ago
  • 0x7eec…c8ed SELL Yes $0.00 22h ago
  • 0x45a8…5aed BUY No $4.57 22h ago
  • 0x6206…cf4c BUY No $7.08 22h ago
  • 0x1186…051b BUY No $708.37 22h ago
  • 0x7eec…c8ed SELL Yes $4.04 22h ago
  • 0x6206…cf4c BUY Yes $1.00 22h ago
  • 0x7eec…c8ed BUY No $4.60 22h ago
  • 0x7eec…c8ed BUY No $4.94 22h ago
  • 0x1186…051b BUY Yes $12.45 22h ago
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $45.50 Jul 27
  • 0x7abc…fe82 BUY No $1.00 Jul 27
  • 0x9904…c488 BUY No $1.00 Jul 27
  • 0xda98…a6a9 BUY No $1.00 Jul 27
  • 0x34db…1b63 SELL Yes $144.98 Jul 26
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $91.00 Jul 26
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $0.54 Jul 26
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $1.31 Jul 26
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $91.00 Jul 26
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY No $91.00 Jul 26
  • 0x8c64…fa63 BUY No $3.00 Jul 26
  • 0x511f…cbe1 SELL Yes $0.18 Jul 26
  • 0x34db…1b63 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 26
  • 0xa7ab…d3dc BUY No $1.16 Jul 26
  • 0xffe6…4acb BUY No $1.11 Jul 26
  • 0xadb5…e421 BUY No $10.05 Jul 26

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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