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Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

Climate & Science Vol. $178,502 50 traders

Yes12%
No88%
$178,502 Vol. Climate & Science
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
10% ▲ 3

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25
  • 0xcb58…ccd0 SELL No $10.96 19h ago
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  • 0x7a5c…767b SELL No $17.80 19h ago
  • 0xe907…cff6 SELL No $115.67 19h ago
  • 0x28dc…b1d1 SELL No $2.61 Jul 26
  • 0x58e6…3123 BUY Yes $1.88 Jul 24
  • 0x21ff…0d71 SELL Yes $3.20 Jul 24
  • 0x3d3c…630b BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 24
  • 0x97b9…bc06 SELL Yes $9.07 Jul 23
  • 0x8494…814a SELL Yes $4.00 Jul 22
  • 0x4f1f…f5ea SELL No $1.20 Jul 20
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $9.92 Jul 19
  • 0xcb89…a2e8 BUY No $1441.08 Jul 19
  • 0x24a1…b60c BUY Yes $1.78 Jul 19
  • 0x0296…ad01 SELL No $49.45 Jul 19
  • 0x0296…ad01 BUY No $50.00 Jul 19
  • 0xd038…3142 SELL No $1.05 Jul 15
  • 0x7a8f…d9ee BUY Yes $1.08 Jul 15
  • 0x4c5d…cf6f SELL Yes $1.38 Jul 14
  • 0xb137…a040 SELL No $12.65 Jul 14
  • 0x3ea7…7fc0 SELL Yes $5.00 Jul 14
  • 0xb924…0803 SELL Yes $1.80 Jul 13
  • 0xf33e…0ab8 SELL Yes $0.00 Jul 12
  • 0xd10a…b9cd SELL No $1.15 Jul 12

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify. The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

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