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Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

Science Vol. $122,280 50 traders

Yes4%
No96%
$122,280 Vol. Science
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
4%

Recent trades

25
  • 0xd614…c4bf BUY No $6.55 3h ago
  • 0xc50a…93b6 SELL Yes $0.68 12h ago
  • 0x8931…a90c BUY No $207.62 Jul 27
  • 0xfdf8…ce07 BUY Yes $2.64 Jul 27
  • 0x1510…fc43 BUY No $1.38 Jul 27
  • 0xfdf8…ce07 BUY Yes $31.77 Jul 26
  • 0x3f2d…2adc BUY Yes $3.84 Jul 24
  • 0xeecc…06cd SELL Yes $4.38 Jul 22
  • 0x565e…875d SELL No $96.36 Jul 21
  • 0xa1e8…b49a SELL Yes $2.10 Jul 21
  • 0x81f4…a1cd BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 21
  • 0xa1e8…b49a BUY Yes $2.18 Jul 21
  • 0xf18d…42ed BUY Yes $6.36 Jul 20
  • 0xfdf8…ce07 SELL Yes $35.10 Jul 19
  • 0xc50a…93b6 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 19
  • 0xeecc…06cd BUY Yes $5.00 Jul 18
  • 0xeb84…5685 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 18
  • 0x8d02…2753 SELL No $31.34 Jul 18
  • 0xeb14…ac37 BUY No $1.50 Jul 18
  • 0x5259…6c5f BUY Yes $5.00 Jul 18
  • 0x1140…069b BUY No $2.00 Jul 17
  • 0x0213…fa78 BUY Yes $10.38 Jul 16
  • 0x2362…2ec5 BUY No $23.70 Jul 16
  • 0xf18d…42ed BUY Yes $9.60 Jul 15
  • 0xc66f…abcc BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 14

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.

Comments

Cryptostradamus Apr 1

La palma / Hawaii anyone?

0x0E362C4C746313B12888D827c2c25Da4F4d372D5-1768450091162 Feb 8

Italy

jensenisking Dec 31

BULLISH ON VOLCANOS

Harbasan Jan 7

To the stratosphere 🚀🚀🚀🚀

Laure Dec 30

"Every year TikTok predicts a 'mega-blast' and every year it’s just a mid-sized ash cloud in Iceland. Axial Seamount is definitely blowing in 2026, but it’s literally underwater nobody is going to feel a thing.

TheGoonMaster Dec 30

listen to your heart, before - you tell him goodbyeeee

GeorgeFloyder Dec 30

GO VOLCANO GO

TheGoonMaster Dec 30

Have u ever deposited?