Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
Outcomes
2Recent trades
29- 0xfc50…aa09 BUY Yes $15.00 11m ago
- 0x9d73…216b BUY No $74.40 14m ago
- 0x9d73…216b BUY No $96.00 14m ago
- 0xf057…ab54 SELL Yes $0.60 1h ago
- 0x0c3c…5eea SELL Yes $3.36 1h ago
- 0x42c7…c415 BUY No $3.24 1h ago
- 0xb4f6…eada BUY No $12.46 1h ago
- 0x4b9b…7a9f BUY No $1.78 1h ago
- 0x84d4…77a9 BUY No $16.22 1h ago
- 0x9f77…cc51 BUY No $10.00 1h ago
- 0x184b…67b2 BUY No $1.04 1h ago
- 0x0f18…5b28 BUY No $8.90 1h ago
- 0x3387…c3f7 BUY No $2.85 1h ago
- 0xb100…6461 BUY No $35.60 1h ago
- 0xcdf5…e344 SELL No $68.08 2h ago
- 0xe762…064b BUY Yes $11.20 2h ago
- 0xc109…450b BUY Yes $0.98 2h ago
- 0xc109…450b BUY Yes $0.93 2h ago
- 0x9b22…3a92 BUY Yes $2.70 2h ago
- 0x9238…b73e BUY Yes $13.59 2h ago
- 0x392a…262d BUY Yes $2.50 3h ago
- 0x1924…dff3 SELL Yes $1.60 3h ago
- 0x313f…e8a5 SELL Yes $0.31 3h ago
- 0x313f…e8a5 SELL Yes $0.48 3h ago
- 0xdb28…08cc SELL Yes $1.10 3h ago
- 0xdee6…c5c5 BUY No $181.42 3h ago
- 0x8a08…0eec BUY Yes $6.60 3h ago
- 0xfaf6…cc47 BUY No $18.69 3h ago
- 0x66c1…2c72 BUY Yes $160.00 4h ago
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Ukraine through a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Iran, directed at Ukraine. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Ukraine if it is directed at the terrestrial territory of Ukraine, including any internal waters. Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, timing, or target of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Kyiv time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of Ukraine and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
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