Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
Outcomes
7Recent trades
40- 0x806e…164f BUY No $1.13 3h ago
- 0x94d0…9e65 SELL No $90.73 15h ago
- 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.98 15h ago
- 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.99 15h ago
- 0x94d0…9e65 SELL No $750.54 19h ago
- 0x8e4f…4594 BUY Yes $12.50 Jul 25
- 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.98 Jul 24
- 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.99 Jul 24
- 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.98 Jul 24
- 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.99 Jul 24
- 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.98 Jul 24
- 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.99 Jul 24
- 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.98 Jul 24
- 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.99 Jul 24
- 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.98 Jul 24
- 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.99 Jul 24
- 0xa815…9cbe SELL Yes $0.84 Jul 24
- 0xc71b…e265 SELL Yes $0.56 Jul 23
- 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.98 Jul 23
- 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.99 Jul 23
- 0x7b52…06a1 SELL No $4.98 Jul 23
- 0x7b52…06a1 BUY No $4.99 Jul 23
- 0x806e…164f BUY No $1.54 Jul 20
- 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.96 Jul 20
- 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.99 Jul 20
- 0x5f42…e101 SELL No $4.96 Jul 20
- 0x2ea5…a6e2 SELL Yes $5.00 Jul 18
- 0x7c4f…96da BUY No $18.00 Jul 18
- 0x25c5…2fd9 BUY No $13.50 Jul 18
- 0x2a30…9726 BUY No $13.50 Jul 18
- 0xb15d…558a SELL No $23.33 Jul 17
- 0x9c30…df21 SELL Yes $5.50 Jul 13
- 0x01c5…4739 BUY No $17.80 Jul 13
- 0x4f0b…e9d9 BUY No $26.70 Jul 13
- 0xa4df…d3da SELL Yes $5.00 Jul 12
- 0x9c30…df21 BUY No $13.50 Jul 12
- 0x158a…47a7 BUY No $31.50 Jul 12
- 0xb39b…fa87 SELL Yes $4.50 Jul 12
- 0xf74c…4b75 BUY No $18.20 Jul 12
- 0x2ea5…a6e2 BUY No $27.30 Jul 12
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Stepnohirsk will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by January 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify. The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Prymorske" with a darker grey line. If all area within the municipality is shaded in red, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of grey along the border of the city, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Once Russia captures the entirety of Stepnohirsk, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Location on Google maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/CwF1b64Qo49PvUZw5 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
Comments
On June 27, just one week after turning 20, French mercenary Nathan Commaret was eliminated by an FPV drone near Stepnogorsk. He first came to Ukraine back in 2024, but did not fight at that time. Then, at the end of 2025, he arrived in a unit of French pseudo-neo-Nazis like himself, underwent training, and saw combat. His mother remains at home.
I dont understand the map, whats that blue-dotted blurry area to the left of Stepho??
It is an area that used to be underwater until a dam was destroyed in 2024
thanks!
Need may market
fr they're so slow with these.
Without Starlink the Russians cant play WoW and jackoff to pornhub all day, the capture should happen way faster than expected
Based, but wishfull thinking.
Okay that's funny
No starlink for Ruzzia nazis, no capture
Next one to be liberated
*Already liberated just waiting for ISW to run out of copium
"liberate"? russia leaves just ruins
Liberated from soviet-era modernist architecture
your portfolio looks perfect now, you deserved it :)
ez bet, soon
yeah, ez for Ukraine to counter-attack
This is next after Myrnohrad
Next which will be occupied?
in what timeframe?
zero
It almost captured
Wonder how this will go!
zero
"How much cope does a man need?"-Lev Tolstoy
This is Jan 21st 2026, last ukr troops are retreating in the north [link removed]
Using ISW as a reference is ridiculous..!! They are doing pro-Ukraine/West propaganda, not objective assessments.
Better to use Russia Today, eh?
according to Russia you captured Kiev in 3 days
Really easy money
yes we see, post your loss
At latest ISW MAP update they marked territorial gain be ukranians that wasnt even Russian according ISW themselves. What a scammers
Rebalance some on February and you will win . Trust me
Suriyak and AMK are bullish AF with their mapping. Even some pro Russian mappers admit that there is still Ukrainian presence in the city
You will sell your positions. Believe me
The infamous "No" holder @leCommissaire sold almost all of his shares ahahhahaha
Dumpling is still on No side
ISW maps stopped showing administrative borders of the cities recently. That's going to be a problem to resolve
Administrative borders are irrelevant for resolution. ISW uses specific geolocation points for the settlement. If the city center point is red it is a Yes. Oracle UMA also cross references with DeepState for clarification if needed. This boundary talk is just FUD from No holders.
Man read the market rules. "The territory of the municipality is shaded in light grey and is distinguished from bordering municipalities such as "Prymorske" with a darker grey line."
AI slop bot
I just hope than ISW have no choice but to admit this loss. After that hell no Im gonna enter market that depends on this scammers
I didn't know. That's my first time
It's insane how it dropped while AMK and Military Summary maps are showing Stepnohirsk under complete russian controle, and DeepState paint it either red or gray zone, where most their gray zones mean russian controle
Russian blogger who didn't admit full capture of Stepnohirsk even others was saying about captured, finally wrote today, than Stepnohirsk finally fully controlled by Russians
His tg: motopatriot78
ISW painted Zarichne, Stepnohirsk soon
Do people even know how winter in Russia /Ukraine looks like? People sit on the stove and warm themselves until it gets warm outside.
god bless my stavka
God bless you guys, thank you. Please keep doing what you're doing. At this pace, I will be able to retire in 2027.
Do people even know how winter in Russia /Ukraine looks like? There is no way one can sustain protracted fighting. There will be some bombing /droning /snipering but only very few, small-scale, and targeted assaults.
[link removed]
focus on operation UrAnus
no one believes the ISW anymore. this and the mirnohrad markets are pure scams
Sell then.
10c is a ridiculously good price
I wish i had more
I'm already overextended too
kokashke
kokashkt