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Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Oil Vol. $1,552,642 50 traders

30+7%
40+100%
60+0%
40+2%
$1,552,642 Vol. Oil

Outcomes

7
Chance
60+
1%
80+
1%
100+
1%
40+ Resolved
90% ▲ 18
50+
2% ▲ 1
30+
5% ▼ 6
40+
4% ▲ 1

Recent trades

40
  • 0x1690…9d6c BUY No $20.00 1h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $1.50 1h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $1.82 1h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $2.60 1h ago
  • 0xd4ab…8253 SELL No $163.38 1h ago
  • 0x4281…1a5a SELL Yes $1.34 1h ago
  • 0x36c2…f7d8 BUY No $36.02 1h ago
  • 0xb08b…4b55 BUY Yes $120.00 3h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL No $398.28 3h ago
  • 0x4b9b…7a9f SELL Yes $0.48 3h ago
  • 0xb08b…4b55 BUY Yes $150.00 3h ago
  • 0x25db…28de BUY Yes $0.53 3h ago
  • 0x1690…9d6c BUY No $20.00 3h ago
  • 0x2194…bec0 SELL Yes $1.96 3h ago
  • 0xd4ab…8253 BUY No $77.00 3h ago
  • 0x7158…582e BUY Yes $3.00 4h ago
  • 0xd045…39de BUY Yes $1.00 5h ago
  • 0x5835…fc40 SELL No $12.37 5h ago
  • 0xe907…cff6 BUY Yes $32.71 6h ago
  • 0x3908…d10e SELL No $1.07 7h ago
  • 0x5835…fc40 BUY No $12.78 7h ago
  • 0x90f8…93c1 SELL No $322.49 8h ago
  • 0xb477…673e SELL No $85.23 10h ago
  • 0xd324…b23c SELL Yes $88.86 10h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $18.91 10h ago
  • 0xc3fc…484a SELL Yes $0.74 10h ago
  • 0x4b9b…7a9f BUY Yes $1.00 11h ago
  • 0xee67…67a6 BUY Yes $1.90 11h ago
  • 0x7fed…9664 BUY No $19.90 11h ago
  • 0xbfe0…192a SELL No $11.00 11h ago
  • 0x4ae5…6079 SELL Yes $21.63 11h ago
  • 0xeaa9…1737 SELL Yes $11.90 11h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $13.20 11h ago
  • 0x1bf7…6f57 BUY No $10.34 11h ago
  • 0x167a…91d5 SELL Yes $15.40 11h ago
  • 0x85a8…9281 BUY No $3735.00 11h ago
  • 0x5344…7dc1 SELL Yes $0.16 12h ago
  • 0xb003…97e1 SELL Yes $15.66 12h ago
  • 0xf9b0…a817 SELL No $497.04 14h ago
  • 0x99fe…5705 SELL No $0.19 17h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and July 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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