How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Outcomes
13Recent trades
40- 0x2fda…ed4d SELL No $6.93 2m ago
- 0x5180…a744 SELL No $3.90 6m ago
- 0x227b…76f9 BUY No $1.49 17m ago
- 0x91e5…e4e3 SELL No $1.62 18m ago
- 0x227b…76f9 SELL No $1.19 18m ago
- 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL No $7.25 20m ago
- 0x89d2…1814 BUY Yes $85.40 20m ago
- 0xe907…cff6 SELL Yes $10.71 23m ago
- 0xd8c1…16c0 BUY Yes $10.00 24m ago
- 0xc5a3…8f93 SELL No $2.08 31m ago
- 0xa158…1c1b SELL No $1.19 32m ago
- 0xa158…1c1b BUY No $1.20 33m ago
- 0x1588…99d7 SELL No $4.12 35m ago
- 0x28f3…f6a3 SELL No $6.87 35m ago
- 0x227b…76f9 BUY No $1.23 38m ago
- 0x9821…31ff SELL No $3.34 39m ago
- 0x227b…76f9 BUY No $1.23 40m ago
- 0x330f…d38d SELL No $4.96 42m ago
- 0x227b…76f9 BUY No $1.23 42m ago
- 0xefcc…c67e SELL No $3.19 43m ago
- 0xc2bb…1ed0 SELL No $7.80 46m ago
- 0x133b…7053 SELL No $4.93 48m ago
- 0x59ee…2c70 SELL No $5.02 48m ago
- 0xd99f…3965 SELL No $2.70 51m ago
- 0x7112…d58e SELL No $4.85 52m ago
- 0x7559…021d SELL No $3.37 55m ago
- 0x19da…4977 BUY No $23.36 55m ago
- 0xa5be…e845 SELL No $6.42 56m ago
- 0x9393…fcfb SELL No $6.03 1h ago
- 0x065a…118d SELL No $5.43 1h ago
- 0x0111…60f7 SELL Yes $1.00 1h ago
- 0xe566…b9e4 SELL No $6.06 1h ago
- 0xa996…34b5 SELL No $6.66 1h ago
- 0xcd9e…9585 SELL No $4.25 1h ago
- 0x54a5…9689 SELL No $4.83 1h ago
- 0xc178…1d76 SELL No $5.60 1h ago
- 0xc754…bb99 SELL Yes $0.83 1h ago
- 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL Yes $0.65 1h ago
- 0x036a…4c9a BUY Yes $25.00 2h ago
- 0xc466…0c26 SELL No $4.71 2h ago
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Comments
win number two baby
dudjbdj retard of the day my lord
2+ let's go!
Soft PPI sinks the hike argument. Data don't lie. Hikes pushed to December while cuts is in the table.
Soft CPI print would allow for possible rate cut in Oct/Dec with QT to offset it
12+ let's go! I told you guys. This year is not gonna end well for the worlds economy and then the Fed will have no other choice.
You will lose so much money and I will just get to sit back and see it happend
How can I lose "so much money". I put only 7.5$. My avg price is 0.3c. If I win, I'll make 2500$. It's an asymmetric bet and I have a good chance of winning it because I know what's coming this fall.
You guys don't know what's coming. Economies are going to collapse this fall. Interest rates will drop to zero. 12+ will give me a 300x return.
ye s s
Sticky inflation and hawkish Fed signals make zero or one 2026 rate cut the most plausible outcome
odds can shift pretty quickly
Watch Warsh would say policy is neutral then start rate cuts with QT
What if they cut 75bps at once, does that count as 1 or 3 rate cuts?
Rules: "If the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each)."
After a black swan event, rates can drop quickly.
there is no outcome that can currently be described as 100%
There will 100% be no rate cuts.
How would a rate increase resolve? 0 resolved to Yes, or everything resolves to No?
A rate increase is not a cut, so the counter stays at 0.
habra recortes seguroooo
9 - unreal
How does 1 hike 1 cut resolve?
por cuantas van?
Two cuts feels like the consensus path right now
theres barely even a single cut on the table, the consensus is no cuts or a hike. the data doesnt support any kind of cuts now with rising unemployment, slow job growth, and sticky inflation. the fed has no choice but to wait and see which of the two forces is stronger
poly98 predicts at least one.. hoping its right
To the Moon 📈
How would a rate increase resolve? 0 resolved to Yes, or everything resolves to No?
Dont be retarded please
Yea.. 0 resolve to Yes bro
chill fam 😂
my ranked teamates
tough markets to trade… my prediction market agent at pref[trade] just flagged that there’s some disparity with fedwatch.
why doesnt polymarket and fedwatch coincide?
They are cooking fedwatch and general public opinion to lower the inflation expectations. Lieing also prevents the speculative investors from frontrunning. Polymarket odds are about right. We'll probably get rate cuts.
A classic in the human mind: if we don't know something, it's been manipulated.
2
200 never gues
8 month to wait the result, bro
If it cuts 100 bps the 25,50 and 75 cuts will resume to NO, correct?
yes, its the exact amount
priced in for 2 hike by the end of oct now.
What if we are seeing a rate hike instead
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赌球
摇头丸
need "idk" option
No rate cuts this year
Hey you said only smart plays
LOL
noo
2