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Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

Oil Vol. $3,414,836 68 traders

August 3113%
August 154%
$3,414,836 Vol. Oil

Outcomes

2
Chance
August 31
11% ▼ 1
August 15
4%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x450e…4fdd BUY No $34.33 1m ago
  • 0x5715…1616 BUY Yes $20.00 1m ago
  • 0x5715…1616 BUY Yes $200.00 1m ago
  • 0x5715…1616 BUY Yes $800.00 2m ago
  • 0x5715…1616 BUY Yes $30.00 2m ago
  • 0x1336…7b1e BUY Yes $692.38 3m ago
  • 0x79e0…98d4 BUY No $10.00 5m ago
  • 0xd87d…52f9 BUY Yes $130.00 11m ago
  • 0x2099…3024 SELL Yes $0.04 14m ago
  • 0xf991…3d25 BUY Yes $1.00 14m ago
  • 0xbaec…d15b BUY Yes $120.00 24m ago
  • 0xbaec…d15b BUY Yes $25.00 24m ago
  • 0xa035…7209 BUY Yes $2.00 32m ago
  • 0xa858…b742 BUY No $25.85 36m ago
  • 0x926c…5234 SELL Yes $10.91 39m ago
  • 0x8cc6…8108 SELL No $29.94 42m ago
  • 0x8cc6…8108 BUY No $30.00 43m ago
  • 0xe7dd…a02a SELL No $217.50 46m ago
  • 0x4a2f…2bc6 BUY Yes $7.00 48m ago
  • 0xdbbe…4045 BUY No $1.00 58m ago
  • 0x66a1…80d9 BUY Yes $6.37 58m ago
  • 0xeb77…4e6b BUY Yes $10.64 1h ago
  • 0xbdd0…550a BUY Yes $2.60 1h ago
  • 0x9d73…216b BUY No $1920.00 1h ago
  • 0xbdd0…550a BUY Yes $2.60 2h ago
  • 0xbdd0…550a BUY Yes $1.30 2h ago
  • 0x9dfb…e887 BUY No $198.00 3h ago
  • 0x278b…43bf BUY No $122.40 3h ago
  • 0x21c0…00f4 BUY No $7.00 3h ago
  • 0x241b…b6f8 SELL No $1.00 3h ago
  • 0x2f34…23ea SELL No $1.00 3h ago
  • 0xb630…bb2e SELL No $1.00 3h ago
  • 0x79cf…3869 SELL No $1.00 3h ago
  • 0x1ed2…5ba2 SELL No $1.00 3h ago
  • 0x75ee…5877 SELL No $1.00 3h ago
  • 0x9ab0…b7fa SELL No $1.00 3h ago
  • 0xd828…81ec SELL No $1.00 3h ago
  • 0xf423…46e8 SELL No $1.00 3h ago
  • 0x77ea…2ef8 SELL No $1.00 3h ago
  • 0x993b…deda BUY No $352.00 3h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and August 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for August 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.

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