← Markets

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)

Iran Vol. $4,800,094 96 traders

July 2449%
July 3155%
August 3171%
July 180%
$4,800,094 Vol. Iran

Outcomes

5
Chance
July 18 Resolved
1%
July 24
48% ▲ 3
July 31
50% ▼ 1
August 14
59% ▲ 5
August 31
64% ▲ 3

Recent trades

40
  • 0xbbe3…5b92 BUY No $10.00 3m ago
  • 0xd57b…f655 BUY No $2.93 4m ago
  • 0x2c82…2a9c BUY Yes $1.96 4m ago
  • 0x5ba8…9200 BUY No $1.61 4m ago
  • 0x7d0b…87e2 BUY No $1.05 14m ago
  • 0xad26…da90 BUY No $7.20 25m ago
  • 0xfe79…785f BUY Yes $1.95 25m ago
  • 0x4eb3…9858 SELL Yes $12.06 26m ago
  • 0x5dbf…3fae SELL Yes $5.20 27m ago
  • 0x8ba2…2825 BUY Yes $1.96 27m ago
  • 0xbde0…9238 BUY No $1.61 27m ago
  • 0x7dd0…0072 BUY Yes $3.30 28m ago
  • 0xec83…69c8 BUY Yes $12.68 30m ago
  • 0x2ba0…93fd BUY Yes $1.96 31m ago
  • 0x7750…ac33 BUY No $1.61 31m ago
  • 0xef17…6583 BUY Yes $20.00 37m ago
  • 0x5f3e…5337 SELL Yes $103.82 38m ago
  • 0xe7a2…bab3 SELL Yes $1.48 38m ago
  • 0xe7a2…bab3 BUY Yes $1.50 38m ago
  • 0xffa3…3d81 BUY No $225.20 41m ago
  • 0xffa3…3d81 BUY No $47.80 42m ago
  • 0xffa3…3d81 SELL Yes $246.76 42m ago
  • 0xffa3…3d81 BUY Yes $253.46 42m ago
  • 0xffa3…3d81 BUY No $142.92 43m ago
  • 0xffa3…3d81 SELL Yes $350.25 43m ago
  • 0xffa3…3d81 BUY Yes $360.25 43m ago
  • 0xffa3…3d81 BUY No $220.36 44m ago
  • 0x0f57…4139 BUY Yes $2.00 48m ago
  • 0x05ab…8145 BUY Yes $549.99 48m ago
  • 0x0f57…4139 BUY No $2.01 49m ago
  • 0x05ab…8145 BUY No $327.99 49m ago
  • 0x0ac6…2d11 SELL Yes $3.93 52m ago
  • 0x7db8…ed19 SELL Yes $26.75 52m ago
  • 0x73e9…57f2 BUY Yes $2.66 52m ago
  • 0x84e2…04b8 BUY Yes $1.98 56m ago
  • 0x5297…7b99 BUY Yes $120.00 59m ago
  • 0x5297…7b99 BUY Yes $114.00 59m ago
  • 0x1e8c…c3db BUY No $1.61 1h ago
  • 0xedd0…8af1 BUY Yes $1.96 1h ago
  • 0x93a3…fbaf BUY No $1.61 1h ago

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market creation and the specified end date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period will be the calendar date (ET) after the most recent qualifying military action (or the date of market creation, if no qualifying action has occurred). The period runs through 12:00 PM ET on the 14th calendar day. This market resolves to “Yes” if any such period is completed where the most recent qualifying military action occurred on or before the specified end date (ET). A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact Iran if it directly impacts the terrestrial territory of Iran, including any internal waters. Maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (ET) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence, attribution, or timing of the action, the action will be judged based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and credible reporting.

Comments

Yarmolenko 12h ago

.

yungsoleimani 13h ago

panic selling because of an attack on kurds CRINE

BrightStars 11h ago

yungsoleimani makes the rules

yungsoleimani 11h ago

you just a little kid man u misunderstand as always i dont make the rules i just collect the money

abdoohl 16h ago

Israel doing pogroms in Westbank and then i have to listen to them cry oooh buhuhu were the victim everybodys against us 6m buhu bla bla bla bla bla 😭 😭

NOIZYUV 16h ago

Judea and Samaria

abdoohl 15h ago

yeh have you heard this fable bout the merciful samaritan btw?

abdoohl 15h ago

i think thats bout a guy from the Westbank

abdoohl 17h ago

Trump: I have plenty of time. Their whole shoreline is wiped out. The Strait of Hormuz is in very good shape. We are talking right now.

Imo7o 17h ago

I mean it only takes one single strike from now until aug 7th for this resolve as a no, i don’t believe the market is pricing this accurately tbh

PolyPlayerMADMAN 14h ago

Yeah but previously peace talks and ceasefire has lasted for a lot longer, Aug 7 is just around the corner And it's on a Friday so I suppose if we get through this weekend then it will be clear

Theturtle 1h ago

Yeah I agreed with but why not go after August 31 to chase some better value if this pause breaks I mean surely August 31 looking good too ?

abdoohl 17h ago

President Trump: ‘We’ve decided to give Iran some time. Not very long. If they don’t make a deal, we’ll attack very powerfully.’

adasol 18h ago

Mediators make 'significant' progress on renewed US-Iran talks - AP Mediators led by Qatar and Pakistan have made progress toward bringing the United States and Iran back to negotiations and restoring an interim ceasefire deal that collapsed after exchanges of fire, AP reported on Monday, citing two regional officials. AP cited one of the officials as describing the progress made in the mediation efforts as “significant.” The official said mediators were working with Iran and Oman on a mechanism to manage vessels’ passage through the Strait of Hormuz, the flashpoint for the latest strikes and counterstrikes.

blueringoctopus 14h ago

We have heard this song before. It's basically on a two week repeat.

abdoohl 21h ago

i just dont know what its like to be **** to the core so it all seems so strange to me

NOIZYUV 21h ago

You know better than anyone

abdoohl 21h ago

somebody woke up on the wrong side of the bed today.......

abdoohl 21h ago

If i was a *** i would be absolutely horrified that a **** country is speaking in my name, but then again im not a ***

NOIZYUV 21h ago

You're like a b!$ch that keep moaning and whining. Actually even worse

abdoohl 21h ago

ooh even more grumpy than usual

NOIZYUV 20h ago

You still live with your mom don't you... otherwise you wouldn't be whining so much

abdoohl 20h ago

and thats the reason nobody said nothing bout the OG Holocaust either..

abdoohl 21h ago

Horrible footage these men in beards and funny hats steal a home and then they sing a song and gloat about it

abdoohl 21h ago

WATCH: On Wednesday, Israeli settlers seized the home of the Palestinian Basha family in the Muslim Quarter of Jerusalem’s Old City after Israeli courts ordered their eviction. The family, which consists of six households, most of whom are elderly, have lived in the building since the 1930s.

perps-01sqko85 22h ago

TACO trump. but i don't get this market...

abdoohl 22h ago

NEW: An IRIB poll has found that 78% of Iranians support exercising control and levying tolls over the Strait of Hormuz, even if it leads to another full-scale war with the United States

NOIZYUV 22h ago

Sure, trust IRIB. Dont be a 🤡

Slamdookie 23h ago

How to make money? just see US bomber depart Germany base 1:30pm start

Greed. Jul 27

;)

ibm322 Jul 27

So a permanent peace deal?Polymarket scam

OkieDokiePeon Jul 27

right, no peace deal ever should resolve YES bcz within infinite time and space possibility to break the peace tends to one

blueringoctopus 14h ago

Do you smell burnt toast?

Quarzo Jul 27

Explain to me like im -9K P/L ... why is July 24th 50/50?

0xB6756421bd99A7cd51e1c205766d7E51D93d3D65-1756688450800 Jul 27

Lmao 🤣

GollumGekko Jul 27

because they stopped shooting on 24. and havent started again (yet)

pink.impala 23h ago

your -7k doe dont exaggerate

pink.impala 23h ago

-7k is childs play, i was -6k but im cuming back like the towers EZ!

0x22A92610bED6bDd2Cf09286BaB8Ba5B1741B97Ba-1774545774538 Jul 27

July 31 is a 100% no

yungsoleimani Jul 27

falling for islamist double speak man

ICBW Jul 26

USA and Russia has over 8000 nukes between them. What difference does it make if Iran gets a few?

SIMOMEGA Jul 26

im sorry if i dont feel safe with religious extremists getting nukes too, putin is more than enough as is

ICBW Jul 27

why would the religious extremists nuke you?

abdoohl Jul 27

if they get nukes the US and israel cant bully them anymore, thats the difference

yungsoleimani Jul 27

lowest iq recorded

NOIZYUV Jul 27

Yours or abdoohls?

UmaSucksBalls Jul 26

So if anyone of the early dates resolve to yes it would make the rest resolve to yes?

SIMOMEGA Jul 26

yes

abdoohl Jul 26

America: ‘If you want the nuclear program, you have to recognize Israel’ Not investing in the United States. Not signing a trade or economic agreement with the U.S. No, we want none of that. Instead, we want you, Saudi Arabia, to recognize this foreign nation (Israel) that is completely unrelated to us, has nothing to do with our own national interests, and we’ll give you enrichment.

truthteller Jul 26

no one cares about Israel, we care about not letting terrorist religious extremist Iran get a nuclear weapon

siick Jul 27

You’re a retard. We are literally preconditioning giving the Saudis a nuclear program who are terrorist religious extremists on the precondition they normalize relations with Israel. It’s all about Israel. Even the Canadian trade deal was preconditioned in Israel lmfao

abdoohl Jul 27

you care A LOT bout israel, every comment from you is glazing israel in some way your just no1 israel fanboi man

NOIZYUV Jul 27

Israel is the US's biggest ally why won't they consider them? I know that with you guys you barely care about your own people, let alone about others

abdoohl Jul 26

Netanyahu says: “Saudi Arabia will receive a civilian nuclear program in exchange for normalizing relations with Israel.”

adasol Jul 26

Iran ready to continue talks in Geneva, Doha or Islamabad - Al Arabiya Iran has told Pakistan it is ready to continue negotiations in Geneva, Doha or Islamabad, Al Arabiya reported, citing a source.

BrightStars Jul 26

@yungsoleimani please confirm

yungsoleimani Jul 26

Cannot confirm, Al Arabiya is a shit source sorry not sorry

yungsoleimani Jul 26

ofc when I tell aenews that hes eating his parent poo for dinner I will not join

BrightStars Jul 26

all the money is yungsoleimani's. sorry not sorry

yungsoleimani Jul 26

This is yungsoleimani’s world and we just live in it