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Andrew Tate released from custody by...?

UK Vol. $143,020 50 traders

July 310%
December 3128%
$143,020 Vol. UK

Outcomes

2
Chance
July 31
1% ▼ 2
December 31
25% ▲ 6

Recent trades

40
  • 0xd397…3a6f BUY No $11.36 3h ago
  • 0x5449…992b BUY No $1.10 3h ago
  • 0x90f7…2501 BUY No $72.00 3h ago
  • 0x8164…df78 BUY Yes $1.65 3h ago
  • 0xae90…b15e SELL Yes $1.29 5h ago
  • 0xae58…e5c5 SELL No $5.01 5h ago
  • 0x5449…992b SELL No $16.71 5h ago
  • 0xcdf8…b8ea BUY No $2226.24 5h ago
  • 0x5449…992b SELL No $0.57 6h ago
  • 0x0275…b936 SELL Yes $0.33 6h ago
  • 0x6752…d610 SELL Yes $2.03 8h ago
  • 0x5449…992b SELL No $0.66 10h ago
  • 0x8296…e9cb SELL Yes $2.59 10h ago
  • 0x44fc…ac29 BUY No $227.09 10h ago
  • 0x5e7d…ca41 SELL No $78.81 12h ago
  • 0x68af…93d2 BUY Yes $99.36 12h ago
  • 0x68af…93d2 BUY Yes $100.00 12h ago
  • 0x133a…8397 BUY No $6.00 12h ago
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $25.00 12h ago
  • 0xa278…5924 BUY No $75.00 12h ago
  • 0x49dd…2a32 SELL No $29.20 14h ago
  • 0x6f19…b9ff SELL No $9.37 15h ago
  • 0x6f19…b9ff SELL No $872.25 15h ago
  • 0x6f19…b9ff SELL No $2994.00 15h ago
  • 0x5923…49cd SELL No $5.83 15h ago
  • 0x1690…9d6c SELL No $20.34 15h ago
  • 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL No $1.02 15h ago
  • 0x68af…93d2 BUY Yes $132.35 15h ago
  • 0x68af…93d2 SELL Yes $7.08 15h ago
  • 0x6f19…b9ff BUY No $51.49 15h ago
  • 0x5414…d35a SELL Yes $12.67 15h ago
  • 0x4b9b…7a9f BUY Yes $1.00 15h ago
  • 0x7b12…865b SELL Yes $0.70 15h ago
  • 0xdd4d…fe0d SELL Yes $17.98 15h ago
  • 0x6f19…b9ff BUY No $177.72 15h ago
  • 0x6f19…b9ff BUY No $229.97 15h ago
  • 0x6cb0…4a25 BUY No $14.00 19h ago
  • 0x7229…d217 BUY Yes $88.32 19h ago
  • 0x44fc…ac29 BUY No $702.00 20h ago
  • 0xcdcd…8279 BUY No $12.92 20h ago

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Andrew Tate is released from government custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Tate is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Tate is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Andrew Tate to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. Extradition or transfer to a different jurisdiction of custody will not qualify as a release from custody. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Comments

ineedmassage 3h ago

do i look like a lawyer, dawg?

Werstie 13h ago

December 31st Yes is in reality equivalent to "Will Tate be granted bail" and the answer to that is an unequivocal no because bail is extremely rare in extradition cases, let alone ones involving 52 charges of violent rape, assault, trafficking and CSAM.

Mantzuraj 15h ago

They'll stay in jail for another 2 weeks. Next court date August 13

gigkikkunkun Jul 27

by the listed date

ICBW Jul 27

Why would he be in custody by the end of the year?

Werstie Jul 27

Because extradition proceedings take a very long time and he isn't getting bail. He also would not get bail in the UK if shipped over, in which case he's still in custody according to the rules.

ineedmassage Jul 26

Free the bottom G

Werstie Jul 26

Why Dec 31 "No" is still cheap at 82¢ 19% Yes prices in a real path to release in the next five months. Walk through them and they mostly close: Bail. This isn't an ordinary federal case - the Bail Reform Act doesn't govern international extradition. Wright v. Henkel (1903) is still the rule: no presumption in favor of bail, and the burden sits on the fugitive to show "special circumstances," which courts read narrowly (grave illness, extraordinary delay, a facially defective request). Being a good bail candidate isn't enough on its own. Prosecutors have already asked for detention without bond, arguing danger to the community and flight risk. The hearing itself. The government's burden at certification is only probable cause. No Federal Rules of Evidence, hearsay comes in, and the defense can't mount a case - only evidence that obliterates probable cause. Dual criminality for rape and trafficking under the 2003 treaty is trivially met. Appeals. There's no direct appeal from a certification order. The only review is a §2241 habeas petition, then the Eleventh Circuit - and he sits in FDC Miami throughout. Aggressive litigation lengthens the process; it doesn't shorten custody. Contested high-profile extraditions run in years, not months. The political exit just closed. Rubio and the white house have said publicly the administration won't intervene. State has granted nearly every UK request since the 2007 treaty took effect.

Mantzuraj Jul 26

Well written 👏

Relaccsed Jul 25

Yeah, he done for

100xfromhere Jul 24

Top Goy sentenced for life?

0x3314241c37A296e9AeCe7E7DFB5898652b4aa8c7-1767968276778 Jul 23

Just out, he will be extradited

Mantzuraj Jul 23

Extradition or transfer to a different jurisdiction of custody will not qualify as a release from custody. Oops, poor Mr troll

Ohyeahohno Jul 25

I've recently been struggling with polymarket and im at a significant loss of money. Could you please alert me of the trades you do so i could do the exact opposite.

0x3314241c37A296e9AeCe7E7DFB5898652b4aa8c7-1767968276778 Jul 25

Bet ‘No’ then :)

Werstie Jul 26

If you think he will be extradited why are you betting so much on December Yes?

Mantzuraj Jul 22

His lawyer is dumb as rocks, and also he has self snitched so much that it's basically over for him

ineedmassage Jul 22

Add other dates bruv

0xa5EE709D561a48E1FF4d724EACa3F24D64CCA4B6-1779801989592 Jul 22

Lebron

0x3314241c37A296e9AeCe7E7DFB5898652b4aa8c7-1767968276778 Jul 22

He’s def life in prison

Euan Jul 22

What colour is your jail cell? 😂😂😂😂 haha fucking bum

Mantzuraj Jul 22

hahahaha love it dude

PeterWar Jul 21

why are there no explicit rules about his death? If he dies? Which should be a concern for everyone, is this yes or no?

Mantzuraj Jul 21

Bro, you are on polymarket for a year. Don't be fucking stupid.

Sahalin Jul 21

it will be No, as in your case he would be released for sure, but after being dead...some nuances right here

letterH Jul 22

bad faith market

rJaien Jul 22

😭

TheKinginYellow Jul 20

rot in jail pls

molodoyy Jul 20

zero Epstein arrests btw