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PolyBet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape
  • $11 YES
    FC Drita vs. Floriana FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND… 0x6b77…fc93
  • $4 YES
    LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Chall… 0xcd27…3573
  • $12 YES
    Apóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: 1st Half O/U… 0x83c6…1ba6
  • $6 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $11 YES
    Liberec: Martin Krumich vs Philip Henning AND… 0x081c…4876
  • $11 YES
    Targu Mures: Lucija Bagaric vs Rachel Gailis A… 0x4d1f…d33b
  • $12 YES
    GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5 AND Cou… 0x47c1…d6ca
  • $10 YES
    Mubadala Citi DC Open: Martin Damm vs Ben Shel… 0xe80f…c8a4
  • $5 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $10 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x0e03…e64f
  • $15 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x857f…e4f1
  • $11 YES
    San Marino: Timofey Skatov vs Thomas Faurel AN… 0xe41f…988a

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $343.17M
24h volume $30.43M
YES 19.9% NO 80.1%

IPO

Anthropic IPO by __?

June 30, 2026 1%
July 31, 2026 1% 4 more
$833.0KVol. 1 jul Finance

OpenAI IPO by...?

August 31, 2026 1%
September 30, 2026 3% 4 more
$2.7MVol. 31 dec OpenAI IPO

Jersey Mike's Subs IPO Closing Market Cap

<$6.5B 12%
$6.5B-$8B 40% 5 more
$5.4KVol. 31 jul IPO

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX 79%
OpenAI 1% 72 more
$4.9MVol. 31 dec Climate & Science

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

<$1.25T 11%
$1.25–$1.5T 15% 8 more
$180.2KVol. 1 jan Finance

OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap

<500B 1%
500–750B 1% 5 more
$2.0MVol. 1 jan IPO

Discord IPO Closing Market Cap

<5B 15%
5–8B 11% 6 more
$19.3KVol. 1 jan IPO

Discord IPO by __?

September 30 7%
October 31 29% 2 more
$2.2KVol. 1 jan IPO

Safepoint IPO Closing Market Cap

<$900M 1%
$900M–$1.1B 1% 5 more
$71.7KVol. 4 jun Finance

Oura IPO Closing Market Cap

<$7.5B 10%
$7.5B–$10B 12% 6 more
$67.4KVol. 1 jan Finance

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Lower Brackets)

<100B 1%
100–200B 1% 5 more
$401.4KVol. 31 dec AI

Reformation IPO Closing Market Cap

<$800M 25%
$800M-$1B 17% 5 more
$2.9KVol. 31 jul IPO

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

75%

Chance

Yes75¢ No41¢
$243.1KVol. 31 dec sam altman

Tarsier Pharma IPO Closing Market Cap

<$250M 4%
$250M-$300M 14% 5 more
$3.9KVol. 10 jul IPO

SpaceX Closing Market Cap End of July

<$1.0T 3%
$1.0T-$1.5T 56% 5 more
$11.6KVol. 31 jul IPO

Deepseek IPO by...?

December 31, 2026 7%
March 31, 2027 22% 3 more
$7.1KVol. 1 jan AI

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)

<0.6T 2%
0.6–0.9T 3% 5 more
$217.8KVol. 31 dec AI

Stripe IPO Closing Market Cap

<$150B 38%
$150B-$200B 36% 8 more
$598Vol. 1 jan IPO

Consensys IPO by ___ ?

December 31, 2025 1%
June 30, 2026 1% 3 more
$440.2KVol. 1 jan Crypto Listings

What will Anthropic's public ticker be?

$AAI 16%
$ANAI 1% 18 more
$59.5KVol. 1 jan Finance