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PolyBet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape
  • $11 YES
    FC Drita vs. Floriana FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND… 0x6b77…fc93
  • $4 YES
    LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Chall… 0xcd27…3573
  • $12 YES
    Apóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: 1st Half O/U… 0x83c6…1ba6
  • $6 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $11 YES
    Liberec: Martin Krumich vs Philip Henning AND… 0x081c…4876
  • $11 YES
    Targu Mures: Lucija Bagaric vs Rachel Gailis A… 0x4d1f…d33b
  • $12 YES
    GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5 AND Cou… 0x47c1…d6ca
  • $10 YES
    Mubadala Citi DC Open: Martin Damm vs Ben Shel… 0xe80f…c8a4
  • $5 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $10 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x0e03…e64f
  • $15 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x857f…e4f1
  • $11 YES
    San Marino: Timofey Skatov vs Thomas Faurel AN… 0xe41f…988a

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $343.17M
24h volume $30.43M
YES 19.9% NO 80.1%

UK

Clacton by-election Winner

Nigel Farage 87%
Giles Watling 1% 50 more
$2.9MVol. 13 aug UK

Andrew Tate released from custody by...?

July 31 1%
December 31 25%
$143.0KVol. 31 dec UK

Clacton by-election: 2nd place

Nigel Farage 3%
Giles Watling 3% 51 more
$308.7KVol. 13 aug UK

Clacton by-election: Turnout

<10k 1%
10k-20k 2% 5 more
$19.3KVol. 14 aug UK

European military action against Iran by...?

July 31 1%
August 31 4%
$186.3KVol. 1 sept UK

Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %

Binface <10% 22%
Binface 10–20% 43% 3 more
$151.1KVol. 14 aug UK

Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory

Farage 60%+ 43%
Farage 40-60% 32% 4 more
$82.1KVol. 14 aug UK

Who will be in the Burnham cabinet?

Angela Rayner 90%
Wes Streeting 90% 27 more
$166.4KVol. 1 jan UK

Bank of England decision in July?

50+ bps decrease 1%
25 bps decrease 1% 3 more
$82.3KVol. 30 jul Economy

Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?

77%

Chance

Yes77¢ No41¢
$19.6KVol. 14 aug UK

UK election called by...?

March 31 1%
June 30 1% 4 more
$814.2KVol. 31 dec UK

Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %

Farage <40% 3%
Farage 40–50% 4% 4 more
$88.6KVol. 1 jul UK

Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Restore receives 10%+ first preference votes?

17%

Chance

Yes17¢ No41¢
$4.1KVol. 30 jul UK

Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Margin of Victory

Bev Craig 15%+ 80%
Bev Craig 10–15% 7% 5 more
$9.7KVol. 31 jul UK

Next UK by-election called by…?

September 30 26%
December 31 53%
$3.3KVol. 1 jan UK

UK social media ban in effect by…?

December 31, 2026 10%
June 30, 2027 46%
$2.3KVol. 1 jul UK

UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 (QoQ)?

Negative 8%
0.0–0.1% 24% 5 more
$16.8KVol. 12 aug Economy

Prince Andrew sentenced to prison?

2%

Chance

Yes2¢ No41¢
$220.6KVol. 31 dec Politics

U.K. Annual Inflation 2026

<1.0% 1%
1.0–1.4% 1% 7 more
$13.8KVol. 20 jan Macro indicators

How many UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?

≤5 17%
6 35% 4 more
$19.6KVol. 1 jan UK