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Fed Decision in September?

fomc·Economic Policy·Fed Rates

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

39%

25 bps increase

62%

50+ bps increase

<1%

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

25 bps decrease<1%

No change39%

25 bps increase62%

50+ bps increase<1%

$116M Vol

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Politics

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$115.8MVol. 16 sept fomc

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom 13% Yes No
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 18% Yes No
126 more
$1276.1MVol. 7 nov United States

Brazil Presidential Election

Tarcisio de Freitas 1% Yes No
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40% Yes No
30 more
$147.6MVol. 4 oct Politics

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen 32% Yes No
Jordan Bardella 2% Yes No
126 more
$131.1MVol. 30 apr French Election

Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?

<20 1% Yes No
20-39 1% Yes No
24 more
$2.3MVol. 11 sept Culture

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Donald Trump 2% Yes No
J.D. Vance 46% Yes No
126 more
$702.2MVol. 7 nov United States

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

16%

Chance

Yes16¢ No41¢
$15.0MVol. 1 jan Crypto

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER) 72% Yes No
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1% Yes No
32 more
$26.8MVol. 20 sept Politics

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

July 24 1% Yes No
July 31 1% Yes No
18 more
$27.5MVol. 1 jan Iran

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

16%

Chance

Yes16¢ No41¢
$11.3MVol. 31 dec Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

13%

Chance

Yes13¢ No41¢
$65.4MVol. 1 jan Military Strikes

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

1%

Chance

Yes1¢ No41¢
$2.1MVol. 15 sept Oil

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

May 31 1% Yes No
June 30 1% Yes No
10 more
$12.8MVol. 1 jan Politics

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

December 31, 2026 6% Yes No
July 31, 2026 1% Yes No
3 more
$23.5MVol. 1 jul Putin

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party 79% Yes No
Republican Party 13% Yes No
7 more
$10.7MVol. 3 nov Parent For Derivative

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

September 4 66% Yes No
September 11 68% Yes No
3 more
$2.0MVol. 1 oct Iran

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance 22% Yes No
Gavin Newsom 7% Yes No
126 more
$704.3MVol. 7 nov President

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Ulf Kristersson 17% Yes No
Magdalena Andersson 75% Yes No
34 more
$5.3MVol. 13 sept Elections

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

1%

Chance

Yes1¢ No41¢
$8.4MVol. 30 sept Oil

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

CDU 1% Yes No
AfD 73% Yes No
22 more
$1.0MVol. 20 sept World