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Fed Decision in September?

fomc·Economic Policy·Fed Rates

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

39%

25 bps increase

62%

50+ bps increase

<1%

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bounty-probe-x1

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25 bps decrease<1%

No change39%

25 bps increase62%

50+ bps increase<1%

$116M Vol

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Economy

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$115.8MVol. 16 sept fomc

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 85% Yes No
1 (25 bps) 5% Yes No
11 more
$52.2MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

16%

Chance

Yes16¢ No41¢
$11.3MVol. 31 dec Politics

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 2% Yes No
3 more
$1.5MVol. 29 oct Fed

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA 66% Yes No
Microsoft 1% Yes No
26 more
$7.1MVol. 31 dec Economy

Fed rate hike by...?

April Meeting 1% Yes No
June Meeting 1% Yes No
3 more
$3.0MVol. 29 oct Fed

Bank of Russia decision in September?

Decrease 19% Yes No
No Change 72% Yes No
1 more
$443.7KVol. 12 sept macro

Fed Decision in December?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 4% Yes No
3 more
$636.3KVol. 10 dec Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

65%

Chance

Yes65¢ No41¢
$8.9MVol. 9 dec CPI Release

Largest Company end of September?

Alphabet 1% Yes No
Tesla 1% Yes No
23 more
$1.6MVol. 1 oct Tech

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.5% 90% Yes No
4.6% 90% Yes No
9 more
$367.4KVol. 31 dec Economy

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$730.5KVol. 18 sept BOJ

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting 1% Yes No
March Meeting 1% Yes No
6 more
$3.5MVol. 8 jan Jerome Powell

August Inflation US - Annual

≤2.9% 1% Yes No
3.0% 1% Yes No
10 more
$112.5KVol. 11 sept CPI

ECB Interest Rates: October 2026

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$103.4KVol. 29 oct ECB

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5% 11% Yes No
Above 3% 90% Yes No
6 more
$1.4MVol. 1 jan Inflation

Core CPI MoM - August 2026

≤0.0% 1% Yes No
0.1% 8% Yes No
5 more
$50.1KVol. 11 sept CPI

Bank of England decision in November?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No
25 bps decrease 1% Yes No
3 more
$64.7KVol. 6 nov BOE

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?

4.82% 90% Yes No
4.85% 90% Yes No
7 more
$27.5KVol. 30 sept Economy

How high will 30-year Treasury yield go in September?

5.30% 90% Yes No
5.33% 90% Yes No
7 more
$14.0KVol. 30 sept Economy