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PolyBet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape
  • $11 YES
    FC Drita vs. Floriana FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND… 0x6b77…fc93
  • $4 YES
    LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Chall… 0xcd27…3573
  • $12 YES
    Apóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: 1st Half O/U… 0x83c6…1ba6
  • $6 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $11 YES
    Liberec: Martin Krumich vs Philip Henning AND… 0x081c…4876
  • $11 YES
    Targu Mures: Lucija Bagaric vs Rachel Gailis A… 0x4d1f…d33b
  • $12 YES
    GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5 AND Cou… 0x47c1…d6ca
  • $10 YES
    Mubadala Citi DC Open: Martin Damm vs Ben Shel… 0xe80f…c8a4
  • $5 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $10 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x0e03…e64f
  • $15 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x857f…e4f1
  • $11 YES
    San Marino: Timofey Skatov vs Thomas Faurel AN… 0xe41f…988a

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $343.17M
24h volume $30.43M
YES 19.9% NO 80.1%

Economy

Fed Decision in July?

50+ bps decrease 1%
25 bps decrease 1% 3 more
$109.0MVol. 29 jul Economic Policy

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

1%

Chance

Yes1¢ No41¢
$21.6MVol. 31 jul Politics

Largest Company end of July?

NVIDIA 18%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$4.7MVol. 1 aug Tech

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 78%
1 (25 bps) 9% 11 more
$45.2MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA 45%
Microsoft 1% 26 more
$4.9MVol. 31 dec Economy

Largest Company end of August?

NVIDIA 44%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$242.0KVol. 1 sept Tech

Fed rate hike in 2026?

64%

Chance

Yes64¢ No41¢
$4.8MVol. 9 dec CPI Release

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 2%
25 bps decrease 3% 3 more
$4.5MVol. 16 sept fomc

Fed rate hike by...?

April Meeting 1%
June Meeting 1% 3 more
$1.7MVol. 29 oct Fed

2nd Largest Company end of July?

NVIDIA 70%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$514.2KVol. 1 aug Tech

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Cut–Pause–Pause 1%
Cut–Pause–Cut 1% 7 more
$626.9KVol. 16 sept Fed

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Cut–Pause–Pause 1%
Cut–Pause–Cut 1% 7 more
$580.8KVol. 29 oct Fed

3rd Largest Company end of August?

NVIDIA 10%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$83.3KVol. 1 sept Tech

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

46%

Chance

Yes46¢ No41¢
$6.1MVol. 31 dec Politics

3rd Largest Company end of July?

NVIDIA 1%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$332.9KVol. 1 aug Tech

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting 1%
March Meeting 1% 6 more
$3.0MVol. 17 jun Jerome Powell

2nd Largest Company end of August?

NVIDIA 40%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$47.2KVol. 1 sept Tech

Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31?

<$0.70T 38%
$0.70-$0.80T 47% 5 more
$127.6KVol. 1 aug Tech

Bank of Japan Decision in July?

50+ bps decrease 1%
25 bps decrease 1% 3 more
$340.6KVol. 31 jul BOJ

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 1%
25 bps decrease 1% 3 more
$106.6KVol. 18 sept BOJ