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Fed Decision in September?

fomc·Economic Policy·Fed Rates

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

39%

25 bps increase

62%

50+ bps increase

<1%

qa4d9e9d9dff

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qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

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25 bps decrease<1%

No change39%

25 bps increase62%

50+ bps increase<1%

$116M Vol

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Geopolitics

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

July 24 1% Yes No
July 31 1% Yes No
18 more
$27.5MVol. 1 jan Iran

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

July 18 90% Yes No
July 20 90% Yes No
22 more
$29.6MVol. 31 dec Iran

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

16%

Chance

Yes16¢ No41¢
$11.3MVol. 31 dec Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

13%

Chance

Yes13¢ No41¢
$65.4MVol. 1 jan Military Strikes

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?

1%

Chance

Yes1¢ No41¢
$2.1MVol. 15 sept Oil

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

May 31 1% Yes No
June 30 1% Yes No
10 more
$12.8MVol. 1 jan Politics

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

December 31, 2026 6% Yes No
July 31, 2026 1% Yes No
3 more
$23.5MVol. 1 jul Putin

US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

September 4 67% Yes No
September 11 67% Yes No
3 more
$2.0MVol. 1 oct Iran

Crude Oil all time high by...?

May 31 1% Yes No
June 30 1% Yes No
2 more
$3.6MVol. 1 jan Oil

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

1%

Chance

Yes1¢ No41¢
$8.4MVol. 30 sept Oil

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

7%

Chance

Yes7¢ No41¢
$601.2KVol. 31 oct Oil

Israel closes its airspace by...?

May 8 1% Yes No
May 31 1% Yes No
17 more
$30.1MVol. 1 oct Politics

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu 25% Yes No
Naftali Bennett 6% Yes No
26 more
$37.0MVol. 31 dec Main Election

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

June 26 1% Yes No
July 3 1% Yes No
10 more
$11.1MVol. 1 apr Iran

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Donald Trump 6% Yes No
Marco Rubio 6% Yes No
18 more
$527.2KVol. 1 jan Iran

Iran leadership change by...?

September 30 2% Yes No
July 31 1% Yes No
12 more
$25.2MVol. 1 jul Politics

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

July 31 1% Yes No
June 24 1% Yes No
8 more
$73.1MVol. 1 jan Iran Regime

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

Turkey 1% Yes No
Russia 1% Yes No
28 more
$3.4MVol. 1 jan Politics

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

June 30 1% Yes No
July 31 1% Yes No
7 more
$17.5MVol. 1 jan Iran

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%

Chance

Yes10¢ No41¢
$3.1MVol. 1 jan China