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Fed Decision in September?

fomc·Economic Policy·Fed Rates

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

39%

25 bps increase

62%

50+ bps increase

<1%

qa4d9e9d9dff

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qa4d9e9d9dff

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25 bps decrease<1%

No change39%

25 bps increase62%

50+ bps increase<1%

$116M Vol

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Israel

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

13%

Chance

Yes13¢ No41¢
$65.4MVol. 1 jan Military Strikes

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

July 18 90% Yes No
July 20 90% Yes No
22 more
$29.6MVol. 31 dec Iran

Israel closes its airspace by...?

May 8 1% Yes No
May 31 1% Yes No
17 more
$30.1MVol. 1 oct Politics

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu 26% Yes No
Naftali Bennett 6% Yes No
26 more
$37.0MVol. 31 dec Main Election

Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?

August 31 1% Yes No
September 30 81% Yes No
6 more
$470.7KVol. 1 oct Iran

Foreign intervention in Gaza by..?

December 31 18% Yes No
August 31 1% Yes No
4 more
$1.1MVol. 1 jan Politics

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

5%

Chance

Yes5¢ No41¢
$25.7MVol. 1 jan Reza Pahlavi

Israel military action against Lebanon on...?

September 3 71% Yes No
September 4 90% Yes No
26 more
$467.9KVol. 1 oct Israel

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

June 30 1% Yes No
June 19 1% Yes No
13 more
$7.1MVol. 1 jan Middle East

Netanyahu out by...?

May 31 1% Yes No
July 31 1% Yes No
4 more
$124.3MVol. 1 jan Geopolitics

Iran coup attempt by...?

December 31 9% Yes No
June 30 1% Yes No
$2.1MVol. 1 jan Geopolitics

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by...?

July 31 1% Yes No
September 30 2% Yes No
$184.3KVol. 1 oct Politics

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

December 31 1% Yes No
December 31, 2026 20% Yes No
4 more
$3.7MVol. 1 jan Gaza

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

June 30 1% Yes No
January 31 1% Yes No
5 more
$21.9MVol. 1 jan shah

Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)

September 4 1% Yes No
September 7 1% Yes No
3 more
$10.0KVol. 1 oct Iran

Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?

North Korea 4% Yes No
Cuba 4% Yes No
14 more
$773.8KVol. 1 jan Syria

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

June 15 1% Yes No
June 30 1% Yes No
5 more
$1.4MVol. 1 sept Israel

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

10%

Chance

Yes10¢ No41¢
$416.9KVol. 1 jan Israel

Israel Election: Likud # of seats?

<20 13% Yes No
20-24 38% Yes No
3 more
$137.4KVol. 27 oct Politics

Israeli Legislative Election Winner

Likud 35% Yes No
Together 1% Yes No
37 more
$301.6KVol. 27 oct Politics