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Fed Decision in September?

fomc·Economic Policy·Fed Rates

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

39%

25 bps increase

62%

50+ bps increase

<1%

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

25 bps decrease<1%

No change39%

25 bps increase62%

50+ bps increase<1%

$116M Vol

Ends Sep 16, 2026

World

Brazil Presidential Election

Tarcisio de Freitas 1% Yes No
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40% Yes No
30 more
$147.6MVol. 4 oct Politics

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen 32% Yes No
Jordan Bardella 2% Yes No
126 more
$131.1MVol. 30 apr French Election

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER) 72% Yes No
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1% Yes No
32 more
$26.8MVol. 20 sept Politics

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

13%

Chance

Yes13¢ No41¢
$65.4MVol. 1 jan Military Strikes

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

December 31, 2026 6% Yes No
July 31, 2026 1% Yes No
3 more
$23.5MVol. 1 jul Putin

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Ulf Kristersson 17% Yes No
Magdalena Andersson 75% Yes No
34 more
$5.3MVol. 13 sept Elections

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

CDU 1% Yes No
AfD 73% Yes No
22 more
$1.0MVol. 20 sept World

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Tarcisio de Freitas 1% Yes No
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 23% Yes No
30 more
$6.9MVol. 4 oct Brazil

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu 25% Yes No
Naftali Bennett 6% Yes No
26 more
$37.0MVol. 31 dec Main Election

Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?

14%

Chance

Yes14¢ No41¢
$1.1MVol. 1 jan Politics

Berlin State Election Winner

CDU 19% Yes No
AfD 11% Yes No
22 more
$3.6MVol. 20 sept World Elections

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

Turkey 1% Yes No
Russia 1% Yes No
28 more
$3.4MVol. 1 jan Politics

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

10%

Chance

Yes10¢ No41¢
$3.1MVol. 1 jan China

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

3%

Chance

Yes3¢ No41¢
$41.2MVol. 31 dec Politics

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

Belarus 1% Yes No
Turkey 1% Yes No
13 more
$1.0MVol. 1 jan Politics

How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?

0 1% Yes No
1 1% Yes No
14 more
$1.7MVol. 1 jan strike

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

3%

Chance

Yes3¢ No41¢
$13.2MVol. 1 jan HFC

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place

CDU 10% Yes No
AfD 1% Yes No
22 more
$84.8KVol. 20 sept World

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Vote Share?

<25% 1% Yes No
25-28% 2% Yes No
2 more
$79.1KVol. 21 sept World

Russia Parliamentary Election Winner

United Russia (ER) 90% Yes No
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 1% Yes No
32 more
$3.7MVol. 20 sept Politics