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PolyBet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape
  • $11 YES
    FC Drita vs. Floriana FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND… 0x6b77…fc93
  • $4 YES
    LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Chall… 0xcd27…3573
  • $12 YES
    Apóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: 1st Half O/U… 0x83c6…1ba6
  • $6 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $11 YES
    Liberec: Martin Krumich vs Philip Henning AND… 0x081c…4876
  • $11 YES
    Targu Mures: Lucija Bagaric vs Rachel Gailis A… 0x4d1f…d33b
  • $12 YES
    GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5 AND Cou… 0x47c1…d6ca
  • $10 YES
    Mubadala Citi DC Open: Martin Damm vs Ben Shel… 0xe80f…c8a4
  • $5 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $10 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x0e03…e64f
  • $15 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x857f…e4f1
  • $11 YES
    San Marino: Timofey Skatov vs Thomas Faurel AN… 0xe41f…988a

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $343.17M
24h volume $30.43M
YES 19.9% NO 80.1%

AI

Next Claude Opus: Text Arena Debut?

1470+ 90%
1480+ 90% 4 more
$195.6KVol. 1 jan AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

↑$3.0T 17%
↑$2.5T 22% 11 more
$2.6MVol. 1 jan Finance

Which company has best AI model end of August?

Anthropic 82%
Meta 1% 30 more
$421.3KVol. 31 aug AI

Best AI model on August 1?

claude-opus-4-6-thinking 1%
claude-opus-4-6 1% 2 more
$107.7KVol. 2 aug AI

Which company has best AI model end of July?

Google 1%
Anthropic 90% 24 more
$8.0MVol. 31 jul Tech

GPT-6 released by…?

July 31, 2026 1%
December 31, 2025 1% 8 more
$750.4KVol. 31 dec OpenAI

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

Alibaba 78%
ByteDance 1% 23 more
$762.4KVol. 31 jul China

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?

Moonshot 69%
Anthropic 16% 28 more
$39.4KVol. 1 sept AI

Best AI model on August 10?

claude-opus-4-6-thinking 3%
claude-opus-4-6 1% 2 more
$53.2KVol. 11 aug AI

Which company has the best AI Agent end of August?

Anthropic 70%
OpenAI 19% 30 more
$31.5KVol. 1 sept AI

Which company has the best Code Arena WebDev AI model end of July?

OpenAI 3%
Anthropic 87% 27 more
$61.6KVol. 1 aug AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?

1510 90%
1520 28% 3 more
$139.7KVol. 30 sept Tech

# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026?

<3 1%
3 1% 2 more
$41.8KVol. 1 aug AI

GPU rental prices (H200) end of July?

<$2.00 1%
$2.00-$3.00 1% 4 more
$53.0KVol. 1 aug AI

Will any AI model reach ___ Coding Arena Score by December 31?

1580 33%
1600 17% 1 more
$158.1KVol. 31 dec Tech

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

June 5 1%
June 12 1% 14 more
$335.7KVol. 31 jul AI

GPU rental prices (H100) end of July?

<$2.00 1%
$2.00-$2.30 1% 5 more
$82.7KVol. 1 aug AI

OpenAI IPO by...?

August 31, 2026 1%
September 30, 2026 3% 4 more
$2.7MVol. 31 dec OpenAI IPO

Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?

↑ 1510 90%
↑ 1520 56% 7 more
$126.2KVol. 31 dec AI Benchmarks

Will any AI model reach ___ Math Arena Score by December 31?

1525 90%
1550 86% 2 more
$96.9KVol. 31 dec Big Tech