Sign Up

Featured markets

Fed Decision in September?

fomc·Economic Policy·Fed Rates

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

39%

25 bps increase

62%

50+ bps increase

<1%

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

25 bps decrease<1%

No change39%

25 bps increase62%

50+ bps increase<1%

$116M Vol

Ends Sep 16, 2026

AI

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 2026 43% Yes No
December 31, 2026 67% Yes No
1 more
$140.4KVol. 1 jan AI

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer 25% Yes No
Hodge Conjecture 40% Yes No
4 more
$63.5KVol. 1 jan AI

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 2026 43% Yes No
December 31, 2026 67% Yes No
1 more
$57.0KVol. 1 jan AI

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Anthropic 80% Yes No
Meta 1% Yes No
30 more
$2.9MVol. 1 oct AI

Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 2026 11% Yes No
December 31, 2026 26% Yes No
1 more
$25.9KVol. 1 jan AI

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

0 12% Yes No
1 25% Yes No
4 more
$18.1KVol. 1 jan AI

Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

78%

Chance

Yes78¢ No41¢
$358.0KVol. 31 dec sam altman

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

<$1.25T 1% Yes No
$1.25–$1.5T 1% Yes No
8 more
$689.6KVol. 1 jan Finance

Best Chinese AI Company end of September?

Alibaba 69% Yes No
Moonshot 17% Yes No
23 more
$310.5KVol. 1 oct AI

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

↑$3.0T 27% Yes No
↑$2.5T 50% Yes No
11 more
$4.5MVol. 1 jan Finance

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Google 9% Yes No
Anthropic 57% Yes No
24 more
$1.2MVol. 1 jan Tech

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by...?

June 5 1% Yes No
June 12 1% Yes No
20 more
$1.3MVol. 1 nov AI

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

23%

Chance

Yes23¢ No41¢
$228.1KVol. 31 dec Tech

Which company has the best Image Edit AI end of September?

OpenAI 85% Yes No
SpaceXAI 1% Yes No
26 more
$23.7KVol. 1 oct AI

Which company has the best Text-to-Image AI end of September?

OpenAI 83% Yes No
Reve 2% Yes No
25 more
$45.6KVol. 1 oct AI

Next Grok Model (4.6+): Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?

35%+ 89% Yes No
40%+ 1% Yes No
3 more
$25.6KVol. 1 jan AI

Tristan Buckmaster sues OpenAI by...?

September 30, 2026 9% Yes No
December 31, 2026 9% Yes No
$6.2KVol. 1 jan AI

Which company has the best Image-to-Video AI end of September?

MiniMax 74% Yes No
Google 10% Yes No
27 more
$7.0KVol. 1 oct AI

Next Grok Model (4.7+) released by...?

September 12 39% Yes No
September 14 64% Yes No
1 more
$8.2KVol. 19 oct AI

Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?

45%+ 63% Yes No
50%+ 40% Yes No
3 more
$91.4KVol. 1 jan AI