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PolyBet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape
  • $11 YES
    FC Drita vs. Floriana FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND… 0x6b77…fc93
  • $4 YES
    LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Chall… 0xcd27…3573
  • $12 YES
    Apóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: 1st Half O/U… 0x83c6…1ba6
  • $6 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $11 YES
    Liberec: Martin Krumich vs Philip Henning AND… 0x081c…4876
  • $11 YES
    Targu Mures: Lucija Bagaric vs Rachel Gailis A… 0x4d1f…d33b
  • $12 YES
    GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5 AND Cou… 0x47c1…d6ca
  • $10 YES
    Mubadala Citi DC Open: Martin Damm vs Ben Shel… 0xe80f…c8a4
  • $5 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $10 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x0e03…e64f
  • $15 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x857f…e4f1
  • $11 YES
    San Marino: Timofey Skatov vs Thomas Faurel AN… 0xe41f…988a

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $343.17M
24h volume $30.43M
YES 19.9% NO 80.1%

Business

Largest Company end of July?

NVIDIA 18%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$4.7MVol. 1 aug Tech

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 78%
1 (25 bps) 9% 11 more
$45.2MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA 45%
Microsoft 1% 26 more
$4.9MVol. 31 dec Economy

Largest Company end of August?

NVIDIA 44%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$242.0KVol. 1 sept Tech

2nd Largest Company end of July?

NVIDIA 70%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$514.2KVol. 1 aug Tech

3rd Largest Company end of August?

NVIDIA 10%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$83.3KVol. 1 sept Tech

3rd Largest Company end of July?

NVIDIA 1%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$332.9KVol. 1 aug Tech

2nd Largest Company end of August?

NVIDIA 40%
Microsoft 1% 27 more
$47.2KVol. 1 sept Tech

GPU rental prices (H200) end of July?

<$2.00 1%
$2.00-$3.00 1% 4 more
$53.0KVol. 1 aug AI

GPU rental prices (H100) end of July?

<$2.00 1%
$2.00-$2.30 1% 5 more
$82.7KVol. 1 aug AI

OpenAI IPO by...?

August 31, 2026 1%
September 30, 2026 3% 4 more
$2.7MVol. 31 dec OpenAI IPO

GPU rental prices (B200) end of July?

<$3.00 1%
$3.00-$4.00 1% 4 more
$75.7KVol. 1 aug AI

Jersey Mike's Subs IPO Closing Market Cap

<$6.5B 12%
$6.5B-$8B 40% 5 more
$5.4KVol. 31 jul IPO

IPOs before 2027?

Discord 32%
Stripe 3% 32 more
$6.9MVol. 31 dec Business

Which companies announce bankruptcy before 2027?

MicroStrategy 4%
Beyond Meat 26% 13 more
$218.1KVol. 31 dec Corporate Financials

GPU rental prices (H200) hit___ in 2026?

↑ $7.00 38%
↑ $6.00 60% 8 more
$7.3KVol. 31 dec AI

AI bubble burst by...?

March 31, 2026 1%
December 31, 2026 16% 1 more
$2.9MVol. 31 dec Business

GPU rental prices (H100) end of 2026?

<$1.50 6%
$1.50-$2.00 26% 5 more
$25.6KVol. 1 jan AI

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX 79%
OpenAI 1% 72 more
$4.9MVol. 31 dec Climate & Science

Another critical Cloudflare incident by...?

June 30 1%
July 31 10% 2 more
$21.8KVol. 31 aug Politics