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PolyBet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape
  • $11 YES
    FC Drita vs. Floriana FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND… 0x6b77…fc93
  • $4 YES
    LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Chall… 0xcd27…3573
  • $12 YES
    Apóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: 1st Half O/U… 0x83c6…1ba6
  • $6 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $11 YES
    Liberec: Martin Krumich vs Philip Henning AND… 0x081c…4876
  • $11 YES
    Targu Mures: Lucija Bagaric vs Rachel Gailis A… 0x4d1f…d33b
  • $12 YES
    GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5 AND Cou… 0x47c1…d6ca
  • $10 YES
    Mubadala Citi DC Open: Martin Damm vs Ben Shel… 0xe80f…c8a4
  • $5 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $10 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x0e03…e64f
  • $15 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x857f…e4f1
  • $11 YES
    San Marino: Timofey Skatov vs Thomas Faurel AN… 0xe41f…988a

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $343.17M
24h volume $30.43M
YES 19.9% NO 80.1%

Fed

Fed Decision in July?

50+ bps decrease 1%
25 bps decrease 1% 3 more
$109.0MVol. 29 jul Economic Policy

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 78%
1 (25 bps) 9% 11 more
$45.2MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Fed rate hike in 2026?

64%

Chance

Yes64¢ No41¢
$4.8MVol. 9 dec CPI Release

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 2%
25 bps decrease 3% 3 more
$4.5MVol. 16 sept fomc

Fed rate hike by...?

April Meeting 1%
June Meeting 1% 3 more
$1.7MVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Cut–Pause–Pause 1%
Cut–Pause–Cut 1% 7 more
$626.9KVol. 16 sept Fed

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Cut–Pause–Pause 1%
Cut–Pause–Cut 1% 7 more
$580.8KVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting 1%
March Meeting 1% 6 more
$3.0MVol. 17 jun Jerome Powell

What will Kevin Warsh say during July Press Conference?

Inflation 40+ times 20%
Inflation 20+ times 58% 35 more
$85.2KVol. 30 jul Fed

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Cut–Pause–Pause 1%
Cut–Pause–Cut 1% 7 more
$905.3KVol. 29 jul Fed

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 2%
25 bps decrease 9% 3 more
$358.3KVol. 29 oct Fed

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 5.0% 3%
↑ 5.5% 2% 19 more
$1.7MVol. 31 dec Jerome Powell

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 20%
1 (25 bps) 32% 4 more
$64.0KVol. 1 jan Fed

How many dissent at the July Fed meeting?

0 22%
1 23% 3 more
$54.1KVol. 29 jul Fed

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

2.25% 1%
2.5% 1% 13 more
$6.7MVol. 9 dec Fed Rates

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

May 30 1%
December 31 33%
$429.8KVol. 31 dec Fed Chair

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

December 31, 2026 4%
June 30, 2027 8%
$5.4KVol. 1 jan Fed

Trump tries to fire Warsh in 2026?

3%

Chance

Yes3¢ No41¢
$96Vol. 1 jan Fed

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

5%

Chance

Yes5¢ No41¢
$122.4KVol. 31 dec Business

Jerome Powell federally charged by...?

December 31, 2026 3%
June 30, 2026 1%
$318.2KVol. 31 dec Fed