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Fed Decision in September?

fomc·Economic Policy·Fed Rates

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

39%

25 bps increase

62%

50+ bps increase

<1%

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

25 bps decrease<1%

No change39%

25 bps increase62%

50+ bps increase<1%

$116M Vol

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election

Tarcisio de Freitas 1% Yes No
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40% Yes No
30 more
$147.6MVol. 4 oct Politics

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Tarcisio de Freitas 1% Yes No
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 23% Yes No
30 more
$6.9MVol. 4 oct Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner

Lula 65% Yes No
Flavio Bolsonaro 23% Yes No
38 more
$70.1KVol. 4 oct Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory

Lula da Silva <5% 28% Yes No
Lula da Silva 5-10% 22% Yes No
9 more
$436.8KVol. 4 oct World

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place

Tarcisio de Freitas 1% Yes No
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 1% Yes No
30 more
$1.1MVol. 4 oct Brazil

Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?

Romeu Zema 1% Yes No
Ronaldo Caiado 1% Yes No
7 more
$597.0KVol. 4 oct Politics

Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?

6%

Chance

Yes6¢ No41¢
$233.1KVol. 4 oct Politics

Ceará Governor Election Winner

Elmano de Freitas 44% Yes No
Ciro Gomes 45% Yes No
24 more
$222.7KVol. 4 oct Politics

Paraná Governor Election Winner

Sergio Moro 75% Yes No
Requião Filho 1% Yes No
16 more
$146.3KVol. 5 oct Brazil

Bahia Governor Election Winner

Jerônimo Rodrigues 59% Yes No
ACM Neto 30% Yes No
26 more
$145.9KVol. 4 oct Brazil

Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?

41%

Chance

Yes41¢ No41¢
$55.9KVol. 31 dec Politics

Sergipe Governor Election Winner

Dr. Helton 1% Yes No
Emanuel Cacho 1% Yes No
24 more
$24.7KVol. 4 oct Brazil

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

<-0.3% 4% Yes No
-0.3% to -0.1% 23% Yes No
5 more
$7.2KVol. 2 dec GDP

Minas Gerais Senate Election: 1st Place

Ana Luiza do MLB 1% Yes No
Arcanjo Pimenta 1% Yes No
42 more
$49.5KVol. 4 oct Brazil

Bank of Brazil decision in September?

50+ bps increase 1% Yes No
25 bps increase 1% Yes No
3 more
$143.3KVol. 15 sept Brazil

Paraíba Senate Election: 2nd Place

Adriano Trajano 1% Yes No
André Gadelha 1% Yes No
35 more
$20.6KVol. 4 oct Brazil

Roraima Senate Election: 2nd Place

Bartô Macuxi 1% Yes No
Chico Rodrigues 9% Yes No
38 more
$65.8KVol. 4 oct Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Ceará

Clariana Barao 1% Yes No
Edmilson Costa 1% Yes No
38 more
$17.4KVol. 4 oct Brazil

Tocantins Senate Election: 2nd Place

Alexandre Guimarães 14% Yes No
Apóstolo Flavio Braga 1% Yes No
38 more
$28.8KVol. 4 oct Brazil

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais

Clariana Barao 1% Yes No
Edmilson Costa 1% Yes No
38 more
$26.4KVol. 4 oct Brazil