Sign Up

PolyBet

Trade what happens next

Trade probabilities on future events. Each position’s price is set by supply and demand.

Live tape
  • $11 YES
    FC Drita vs. Floriana FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND… 0x6b77…fc93
  • $4 YES
    LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Chall… 0xcd27…3573
  • $12 YES
    Apóllon Lemesoú vs. SK Dila Gori: 1st Half O/U… 0x83c6…1ba6
  • $6 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $11 YES
    Liberec: Martin Krumich vs Philip Henning AND… 0x081c…4876
  • $11 YES
    Targu Mures: Lucija Bagaric vs Rachel Gailis A… 0x4d1f…d33b
  • $12 YES
    GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun: O/U 3.5 AND Cou… 0x47c1…d6ca
  • $10 YES
    Mubadala Citi DC Open: Martin Damm vs Ben Shel… 0xe80f…c8a4
  • $5 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x5391…fee2
  • $10 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x0e03…e64f
  • $15 YES
    LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs HANJIN… 0x857f…e4f1
  • $11 YES
    San Marino: Timofey Skatov vs Thomas Faurel AN… 0xe41f…988a

Market brief

Current distribution of market expectations

Open interest $343.17M
24h volume $30.43M
YES 19.9% NO 80.1%

Science

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

1%

Chance

Yes1¢ No41¢
$754.5KVol. 31 dec Earthquakes

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?

0 1%
1 14% 5 more
$16.8KVol. 3 aug Science

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

1 41%
2 49% 4 more
$3.2MVol. 31 dec Weather & Science

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

April 30 1%
June 30 1% 4 more
$63.6MVol. 31 dec Aliens

How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 27 - August 2?

≤6 5%
7 5% 7 more
$13.4KVol. 3 aug Science

New pandemic in 2026?

7%

Chance

Yes7¢ No41¢
$951.9KVol. 31 dec Pandemics

Precipitation in Hong Kong in July?

<400mm 1%
400-425mm 1% 8 more
$51.3KVol. 31 jul Science

Precipitation in NYC in July?

<2" 1%
2-3" 1% 4 more
$39.4KVol. 31 jul Science

Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 29, 2026?

<0.1 58%
0.1 40% 1 more
$3.6KVol. 1 aug flu

2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?

1st hottest 78%
2nd hottest 6% 2 more
$118.5KVol. 31 jul Science

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑3.5k 64%
↑500 90% 8 more
$7.8MVol. 31 dec Rewards 20, 4.5, 50

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

<5 1%
5–7 1% 5 more
$1.4MVol. 31 dec Weather

July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)

<1.10ºC 1%
1.10–1.14ºC 1% 4 more
$48.6KVol. 1 aug Science

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX 79%
OpenAI 1% 72 more
$4.9MVol. 31 dec Climate & Science

How many SpaceX launches in 2026?

<100 1%
100-119 1% 5 more
$319.7KVol. 31 dec Rewards 50, 4.5, 100 Deprec

Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?

2200 90%
2300 90% 4 more
$56.0KVol. 1 aug Measles

Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?

4%

Chance

Yes4¢ No41¢
$122.3KVol. 31 mar Science

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

December 31, 2026 15%
December 31, 2027 35% 1 more
$231Vol. 1 jan Culture

Natural Disaster in 2026?

15%

Chance

Yes15¢ No41¢
$228.2KVol. 31 dec Parlays

Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?

10%

Chance

Yes10¢ No41¢
$178.5KVol. 31 dec Climate & Science