Sign Up

Featured markets

Fed Decision in September?

fomc·Economic Policy·Fed Rates

25 bps decrease

<1%

No change

39%

25 bps increase

62%

50+ bps increase

<1%

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

qa4d9e9d9dff

bounty-probe-x1

25 bps decrease<1%

No change39%

25 bps increase62%

50+ bps increase<1%

$116M Vol

Ends Sep 16, 2026

Science

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

April 30 1% Yes No
June 30 1% Yes No
4 more
$66.9MVol. 1 jan Aliens

AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 2026 41% Yes No
December 31, 2026 66% Yes No
1 more
$141.5KVol. 1 jan AI

Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?

Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer 25% Yes No
Hodge Conjecture 40% Yes No
4 more
$66.1KVol. 1 jan AI

OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 2026 43% Yes No
December 31, 2026 67% Yes No
1 more
$57.6KVol. 1 jan AI

Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by ___?

December 31, 2026 5% Yes No
December 31, 2027 15% Yes No
1 more
$313.6KVol. 1 jan Culture

Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by...?

June 30, 2027 49% Yes No
December 31, 2027 60% Yes No
1 more
$973.7KVol. 1 jan Culture

Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by...?

September 30, 2026 11% Yes No
December 31, 2026 26% Yes No
1 more
$25.9KVol. 1 jan AI

How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?

0 12% Yes No
1 25% Yes No
4 more
$18.1KVol. 1 jan AI

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

<5 1% Yes No
5–7 1% Yes No
5 more
$1.4MVol. 1 jan Weather

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

August 31 1% Yes No
September 30 75% Yes No
9 more
$493.7KVol. 1 jul Tech

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

SpaceX 38% Yes No
OpenAI 2% Yes No
72 more
$6.0MVol. 31 dec Climate & Science

Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

1 69% Yes No
2 20% Yes No
4 more
$3.4MVol. 31 dec Weather & Science

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

<5 45% Yes No
5-6 39% Yes No
6 more
$511.8KVol. 1 jan SpaceX

Precipitation in Seoul in September?

<75mm 64% Yes No
75-100mm 9% Yes No
6 more
$22.0KVol. 1 oct Science

New pandemic in 2026?

5%

Chance

Yes5¢ No41¢
$1.1MVol. 1 jan Pandemics

Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by ___?

December 31, 2026 6% Yes No
December 31, 2027 17% Yes No
1 more
$8.2KVol. 1 jan AI

Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?

Riemann Hypothesis 14% Yes No
P versus NP 7% Yes No
12 more
$1.3KVol. 1 jan AI

OpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?

55%

Chance

Yes55¢ No41¢
$2.3KVol. 1 jan AI

Further substantive progress on the Riemann Hypothesis by ___?

October 31, 2026 10% Yes No
December 31, 2026 22% Yes No
$7.2KVol. 1 jan AI

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

↑3.5k 90% Yes No
↑4.5k 1% Yes No
11 more
$7.9MVol. 1 jan Rewards 20, 4.5, 50