Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
Recent trades
25- 0xecfa…3c6f BUY No $67.00 2h ago
- 0x9fb7…3297 SELL Yes $2.97 4h ago
- 0x442c…3db8 BUY No $4.02 5h ago
- 0xc754…bb99 SELL Yes $1.63 6h ago
- 0x7761…f504 BUY No $1.34 6h ago
- 0x45e6…8fca BUY No $3.45 16h ago
- 0x17dd…cb83 BUY No $1.00 16h ago
- 0xe597…c9a1 BUY No $1.00 16h ago
- 0x81b0…463a BUY No $1.58 16h ago
- 0x1297…30fc SELL No $52.80 16h ago
- 0xcf6a…f9d0 SELL Yes $1708.48 16h ago
- 0xd12b…4fea SELL Yes $1.18 17h ago
- 0xe189…744f BUY No $10.00 22h ago
- 0x36f9…cec7 BUY No $4.50 22h ago
- 0xc754…bb99 BUY Yes $1.68 22h ago
- 0x63c6…3e53 BUY No $466.92 22h ago
- 0x45e6…8fca BUY No $3.45 22h ago
- 0x17dd…cb83 BUY No $6.13 22h ago
- 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $59.40 22h ago
- 0x5b1d…8895 BUY No $16.62 22h ago
- 0xe597…c9a1 BUY No $1.53 22h ago
- 0xedf2…a226 BUY No $4.37 22h ago
- 0x9f77…cc51 BUY No $10.00 22h ago
- 0xcd71…d127 BUY No $9075.61 22h ago
- 0x92b0…94df SELL No $14.77 Jul 27
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Comments
Seems as if those opposed to it believe there's a serious chance it could pass: "Two efforts that were crafted to sink the proposed billionaire tax — dubbed poison pills — also qualified for the Nov. 3 ballot, according to the California Secretary of State’s office. One would bar new state taxes on personal property, while the other prohibits any new taxes being exempted from existing state spending rules and to be regularly audited. If the billionaire tax proposal is approved by voters but either of the other proposals receives more votes, the tax measure would be voided."
Could this increase the odds for this market? If im reading the rules of the market correctly, it could resolve Yes because the measure passes during the election but the wealth tax could still not take effect if either of the poison pill initiatives pass. Meaning, those opposing it could direct resources into the making sure the other initiatives pass instead.
Can we have a 100% Wealth Tax for Gavin Newsome please?
Polling consistently has 50 to 60% support. Can anyone steelman the case for why they think it won't pass? I get the sense that, given ballot measures aren't compulsory to vote on, there's a much larger number of people who are passionately in favor of this vs the number that are against it. (From the Wikipedia page for Polling data)
support drops drastically for any ballot measure as the election gets closer. Billionaires are going to be dumping millions into ad campaigns
Sure, but there's been plenty of measures & candidates that won that were not the most well funded. The 'poison pill' initiatives indicate, along with the revealed preferences of certain wealthy people (e.g. Sergey Brin moving out of the state), that there's a serious possibility the wealthy believe it could pass. Newsom & other establishment Dems opposing it does hurt it tho
difference is that the democratic party leaders like Gavin Newsome opposes the billionaire tax, but I doubt he will support the poison pill bill
If the rich all leave, will the poor still have job opportunities?
the fixed assets—factories and infrastructure—remain. As long as engineers and skilled labor stay, production can be restarted. While libertarian theory emphasizes non-aggression.
Yes but no but irrelevant
another pump ?
Whats up with these three new accounts hoarding all the yes?
Since poly is used as "polling" info in news media, trying to influence the polybet to influence the real world vote? Surprising its on the opposite side of the billionaires..
Interesting point, the voters will decide and I think we know which way they will lean!
this will violate both the california state constitution and the united states constitution: 14th amendment due process, retroactivity, right to travel, armstrong vs US, then 5th amendment takings, forced liquidation. this is free money, no chance this can proceed from both state and federal levels
Why aren't any billionaires using this market to hedge?
Asking questions like this is why you are poor
2 million dollar volume is not gonna cover a billion dollars buddy
So, California is run by big tech billionaires, so who really is going to pay?
What caused the pump and what the dump?
"one-time" lmao
let me buy no at a reasonable price
what kind of communist bs is this
Just one time communism, I am sure...
Got to protect those billionaires