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China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

HFC Vol. $3,125,718 62 traders

Yes7%
No93%
$3,125,718 Vol. HFC
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
5%

Recent trades

25
  • 0xa174…8736 SELL Yes $7.15 14s ago
  • 0xfbca…e196 BUY Yes $7.26 28s ago
  • 0x5501…608f SELL Yes $6.50 2m ago
  • 0xa174…8736 BUY Yes $7.26 4m ago
  • 0x5501…608f BUY Yes $6.60 5m ago
  • 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.97 4h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.98 4h ago
  • 0xe29f…e326 SELL No $4.96 5h ago
  • 0xe29f…e326 BUY No $4.98 5h ago
  • 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.96 5h ago
  • 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.98 5h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.96 6h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.98 6h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae SELL No $4.96 7h ago
  • 0xd390…89ae BUY No $4.98 7h ago
  • 0x1316…b090 SELL No $4.96 8h ago
  • 0x1316…b090 BUY No $4.98 8h ago
  • 0xcbff…f748 BUY Yes $40.62 11h ago
  • 0x258b…4f7d BUY No $1.00 16h ago
  • 0xbfa9…c2c3 BUY Yes $1.00 20h ago
  • 0x0ab6…8eef SELL Yes $5.80 21h ago
  • 0x14be…4498 SELL Yes $168.34 Jul 27
  • 0xe29f…e326 SELL No $4.97 Jul 27
  • 0xe29f…e326 BUY No $4.98 Jul 27
  • 0xcd2d…5e97 SELL Yes $0.77 Jul 27

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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