How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Outcomes
13Recent trades
40- 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL Yes $0.65 19m ago
- 0x036a…4c9a BUY Yes $25.00 29m ago
- 0xc466…0c26 SELL No $4.71 31m ago
- 0x1c77…934f SELL No $7.46 31m ago
- 0x97c6…6587 SELL No $0.09 31m ago
- 0x6b6f…3896 SELL No $4.91 36m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL Yes $2.54 40m ago
- 0xa533…c905 SELL No $2.25 40m ago
- 0x95a5…c194 SELL No $2.47 41m ago
- 0x7449…c05e SELL No $1.36 42m ago
- 0xa996…34b5 SELL No $0.77 43m ago
- 0xa996…34b5 BUY No $7.35 43m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL Yes $2.54 43m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL Yes $2.54 43m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY Yes $2.56 44m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY Yes $2.56 44m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY No $2.48 45m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY No $2.49 45m ago
- 0x5a71…03e2 SELL No $7.60 45m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY No $2.49 45m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL No $2.57 45m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 SELL No $2.57 45m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY No $2.58 46m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY No $2.58 46m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY No $2.58 47m ago
- 0x870f…6da1 BUY No $2.58 47m ago
- 0x6d35…fd13 SELL No $5.51 49m ago
- 0x255e…7634 SELL No $5.22 49m ago
- 0xaa20…dcf2 SELL No $6.30 54m ago
- 0x2275…7566 SELL No $2.35 1h ago
- 0x21c7…1231 SELL No $5.81 1h ago
- 0x17e2…7c35 SELL No $7.99 1h ago
- 0xbc7f…c71b SELL No $7.86 1h ago
- 0x7d58…462d SELL Yes $1.25 1h ago
- 0x6df7…afb0 SELL Yes $12.27 1h ago
- 0x6df7…afb0 SELL Yes $45.00 1h ago
- 0xc754…bb99 SELL No $1.01 1h ago
- 0x9ebc…35c2 SELL Yes $31.80 1h ago
- 0xc889…b72d SELL No $1.35 1h ago
- 0xc2bb…1ed0 BUY No $7.80 1h ago
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Comments
dudjbdj retard of the day my lord
2+ let's go!
Soft PPI sinks the hike argument. Data don't lie. Hikes pushed to December while cuts is in the table.
Soft CPI print would allow for possible rate cut in Oct/Dec with QT to offset it
12+ let's go! I told you guys. This year is not gonna end well for the worlds economy and then the Fed will have no other choice.
You will lose so much money and I will just get to sit back and see it happend
How can I lose "so much money". I put only 7.5$. My avg price is 0.3c. If I win, I'll make 2500$. It's an asymmetric bet and I have a good chance of winning it because I know what's coming this fall.
You guys don't know what's coming. Economies are going to collapse this fall. Interest rates will drop to zero. 12+ will give me a 300x return.
ye s s
Sticky inflation and hawkish Fed signals make zero or one 2026 rate cut the most plausible outcome
odds can shift pretty quickly
Watch Warsh would say policy is neutral then start rate cuts with QT
What if they cut 75bps at once, does that count as 1 or 3 rate cuts?
Rules: "If the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each)."
After a black swan event, rates can drop quickly.
there is no outcome that can currently be described as 100%
There will 100% be no rate cuts.
How would a rate increase resolve? 0 resolved to Yes, or everything resolves to No?
A rate increase is not a cut, so the counter stays at 0.
habra recortes seguroooo
9 - unreal
How does 1 hike 1 cut resolve?
por cuantas van?
Two cuts feels like the consensus path right now
theres barely even a single cut on the table, the consensus is no cuts or a hike. the data doesnt support any kind of cuts now with rising unemployment, slow job growth, and sticky inflation. the fed has no choice but to wait and see which of the two forces is stronger
poly98 predicts at least one.. hoping its right
To the Moon 📈
How would a rate increase resolve? 0 resolved to Yes, or everything resolves to No?
Dont be retarded please
Yea.. 0 resolve to Yes bro
chill fam 😂
my ranked teamates
tough markets to trade… my prediction market agent at pref[trade] just flagged that there’s some disparity with fedwatch.
why doesnt polymarket and fedwatch coincide?
They are cooking fedwatch and general public opinion to lower the inflation expectations. Lieing also prevents the speculative investors from frontrunning. Polymarket odds are about right. We'll probably get rate cuts.
A classic in the human mind: if we don't know something, it's been manipulated.
2
200 never gues
8 month to wait the result, bro
If it cuts 100 bps the 25,50 and 75 cuts will resume to NO, correct?
yes, its the exact amount
priced in for 2 hike by the end of oct now.
What if we are seeing a rate hike instead
黑平台出金
赌球
摇头丸
need "idk" option
No rate cuts this year
Hey you said only smart plays
LOL
noo
2
It will be