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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
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0 (0 bps)
$9,139,176 Vol.
87%
1 (25 bps)
$3,610,346 Vol.
1%
2 (50 bps)
$3,488,400 Vol.
1%
3 (75 bps)
$2,994,693 Vol.
1%
4 (100 bps)
$2,784,460 Vol.
1%
5 (125 bps)
$3,019,794 Vol.
1%
6 (150 bps)
$4,232,547 Vol.
1%
7 (175 bps)
$3,533,970 Vol.
1%
8 (200 bps)
$3,314,005 Vol.
1%
9 (225 bps)
$4,308,918 Vol.
1%
10 (250 bps)
$4,973,203 Vol.
1%
11 (275 bps)
$5,319,024 Vol.
1%
12+ (300+ bps)
$4,156,121 Vol.
1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the spe... This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Market Opened: Sep 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm- No recent trades