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Iran leader end of 2026?

Middle East Vol. $35,263,299 705 traders

Mohammad Khatami0%
Mojtaba Khamenei79%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian0%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi0%
$35,263,299 Vol. Middle East

Outcomes

123
Chance
No Head of State
6% ▲ 1
Muhammad Mirbaqiri
1%
Sadegh Larijani
1%
Mojtaba Khamenei
73%
Hassan Khomeini
1%
Reza Pahlavi
3%
Hassan Shariatmadari
1%
Maryam Rajavi
1%
Massoud Rajavi
1%
Seyed Hossein Mousavian
1%
Reza Pirzadeh
1%
Navid Shomali
1%
Mustafa Hijri
1%
Ali Motahari
1%
Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel
1%
Mostafa Pourmohammadi
1%
Sadegh Mahsouli
1%
Masoud Pezeshkian
1%
Saeed Jalili
1%
Hassan Rouhani
1%
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
1%
Mohammad Khatami
1%
Other
1%
Mohammad Pakpour Resolved
1%
Alireza Arafi
2%
Ali Larijani Resolved
1%
Abbas Araghchi
1%
Ahmad Vahidi
1% ▼ 1
Mohsen Araki
1%
Nasir Hosseini
1%
Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani
1%
Ali Asghar Hejazi
1%
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
1%
o
1%
p
1%
q
1%
r
1%
s
1%
t
1%
u
1%
v
1%
w
1%
x
1%
y
1%
z
1%
aa
1%
ab
1%
ac
1%
ad
1%
ae
1%
af
1%
ag
1%
ah
1%
ai
1%
aj
1%
ak
1%
al
1%
am
1%
an
1%
ao
1%
ap
1%
aq
1%
ar
1%
as
1%
at
1%
au
1%
av
1%
aw
1%
ax
1%
ay
1%
az
1%
ba
1%
bb
1%
bc
1%
bd
1%
be
1%
bf
1%
bg
1%
bh
1%
bi
1%
bj
1%
bk
1%
bl
1%
bm
1%
bn
1%
bo
1%
bp
1%
bq
1%
br
1%
bs
1%
bt
1%
bu
1%
bv
1%
bw
1%
bx
1%
by
1%
bz
1%
ca
1%
cb
1%
cc
1%
cd
1%
ce
1%
cf
1%
cg
1%
ch
1%
ci
1%
cj
1%
ck
1%
cl
1%
cm
1%
cn
1%
co
1%
cp
1%
cq
1%
cr
1%
cs
1%
ct
1%
cu
1%
cv
1%
cw
1%
cx
1%
cy
1%
cz
1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x7552…2d99 SELL No $2.67 3m ago
  • 0xe507…43b8 SELL No $5.85 5m ago
  • 0xa056…9985 SELL No $5.79 7m ago
  • 0xd990…0037 SELL No $3.49 8m ago
  • 0xe7c2…d9e3 SELL No $6.15 11m ago
  • 0xda6f…ea84 SELL Yes $3.98 14m ago
  • 0xd66c…a87d SELL No $2.47 14m ago
  • 0xcae9…bcc3 SELL No $2.67 15m ago
  • 0x583a…8f33 SELL No $7.71 17m ago
  • 0xc394…2686 SELL No $7.43 18m ago
  • 0x4689…f31c SELL No $2.64 1h ago
  • 0x2961…66c0 SELL No $2.50 1h ago
  • 0x64d8…c59c SELL No $7.29 1h ago
  • 0x8dab…369c SELL No $2.62 1h ago
  • 0x4fbb…507a SELL No $1.04 1h ago
  • 0x650a…8aea SELL No $4.32 1h ago
  • 0x11bf…8b71 SELL No $5.20 2h ago
  • 0x3f2e…ab76 SELL No $6.49 2h ago
  • 0x64d8…c59c BUY No $7.49 2h ago
  • 0x4977…7f64 SELL No $7.67 2h ago
  • 0x1c7a…1283 SELL No $3.85 2h ago
  • 0x583a…8f33 BUY No $7.74 2h ago
  • 0xe7c2…d9e3 BUY No $6.17 2h ago
  • 0x3767…9ca6 SELL No $5.77 2h ago
  • 0xbefc…57b1 SELL No $6.32 2h ago
  • 0x0175…13b0 SELL No $2.45 2h ago
  • 0x25db…28de SELL No $20.00 2h ago
  • 0xa1b0…d773 BUY No $7.88 2h ago
  • 0xb95e…dc45 SELL No $3.97 2h ago
  • 0xe8a9…2e0d SELL No $2.61 2h ago
  • 0x25db…28de SELL No $38.19 3h ago
  • 0x34e9…2cad SELL No $4.46 3h ago
  • 0x1869…5a0d BUY Yes $11.24 3h ago
  • 0xc394…2686 BUY No $7.63 3h ago
  • 0x30fd…4da8 SELL No $7.15 3h ago
  • 0x44b5…9dda SELL No $7.49 3h ago
  • 0xd51e…664c SELL No $6.51 3h ago
  • 0x5e69…8c94 SELL No $3.12 3h ago
  • 0xff3a…8ba5 SELL No $0.12 3h ago
  • 0x34e9…2cad BUY No $4.49 3h ago

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Comments

Treedud25 Jul 26

WHO ARE THE CLOWNS BIDDING THIS DOWN

Yarick Jul 27

Only idiots, watch us or Israel take that disabled already leader out…

0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-1782077010161 Jul 27

sure bag holder, Mojtaba yes is literally 92% chance and your avg. no is high af, you've already lost this one

Treedud25 19h ago

Hes dead.

0x688B15F0B28ED993dba8EE14F3485ddbB55349F5-1774551591274 Jul 25

Invisible leader

abdoohl Jul 25

Mojtaba for the win!

0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-1782077010161 Jul 24

Mojtaba yes will print, Americans are already frustrated because of that orange fatso's actions and the fact they are being called child murderers now by many countries, most are not ok with this and that means Mojtaba will remain in power (92% chance)

UmaSucksBalls Jul 23

Trump is going balls to the wall to force the regime change. This year he proved to not taco by wiping out the previous leaders. He’s hella pissed now with what’s going in the strait. Either he wipes them out or America goes into the deepest levels of the Great Depression from all the war spending and let’s be real this mfer wants to his ratings to go up by end of year.

Treedud25 Jul 22

This is already over.

UmaSucksBalls Jul 22

Mfer been dead just need intel to leak it. Fucking IRGC worst than a girlfriend who will cry to your face but is actually lying behind the tears.

Hummershark Jul 20

This fucker already dead!!!!

Ninjafx Jul 19

yesss

UmaSucksBalls Jul 19

Operation Nuke Yes holders

UmaSucksBalls Jul 17

Mark my words this bitch is going to flip to no

hyper-liquid-xyz Jul 15

Ooo possibly more friction in negotiations - Iran calculated $9 billion in profits from market manipulation by "individuals close to Trump," mainly Kushner and Witkoff, and formally requested $4.5 billion of that sum be allocated to Iran through intermediaries.

UmaSucksBalls Jul 14

The all of sudden jump in no head of state is interesting. Maybe trump finna nuke all of Iran.

UmaSucksBalls Jul 13

It’s going down! I’m yelling timber!

Ardalof Jul 12

Say hi to Ali Khomeini

UmaSucksBalls Jul 10

I wonder if he’s actually dead and if so how long will they use his ghost as a placeholder

slowtrader5962 Jul 9

Profit is profit.

Moly-Parket365 Jul 9

Add option UMA chooses next leader of IRAN

0x03141505C79F7D82eA4d426105Cb228B4eD92F6d-1766507216051 Jul 7

I don't understand why the scandalous lack of any proof that Mojtaba is alive isn't being used as a major weapon against the regime.

JackSeraph Jul 9

Not attending your father's funeral is essentially tacit confirmation that he's dead and the IRGC are using his name as a marionette to run the whole show. Pezeshkian totally irrelevant and sidelined.

0xb6514e0836ba48eD4b86439D254d99071Cd0b4F7-1782077010161 Jul 9

that's something that orange moron would've said

UmaSucksBalls Jul 11

Or cause it would have been an easy way to get him killed too

UmaSucksBalls Jul 22

I’m sure it will come to light as some point just hopefully it’s this year.

You009 Jul 6

Easy money

NOIZYUV Jul 4

The 🐽 is not alive

0x310DF5D5D48BAA38050EB76d5E611a40623FBEd0-1759164332082 Jul 3

Mojtaba is a no show for his fathers funeral…

Malaya6372 Jun 7

hard to bet against the status quo holding through the year

Malganis Jun 6

It's strategically important for the IRGC to keep ambiguous Mojtaba's status, weither he's in the best shape of his life or, more likely, under an unmarked grave. This market real value is more or less "Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?", currently sitting wayyyy cheaper at 13 cent.

riyyyaa May 23

0x08D3B3B85486415EB01D5670a75F2ea4958D4D01-1769819978040 May 17

People overwhelmingly want Pahlavi and the current leaders keep dropping, isn’t it obvious?

Yarick May 12

[link removed] Us intelligence and CIA shows Mojtbna Khamenei is either dead or cannot function normally. No way he is leading his fractured country…

Flafson May 18

Many market resolve over a negative outcome not because they didn't happen but because there is no way to prove it happened in the given timeframe. I 100% agree with you but right now doesn't matter his state, IRGC has no interest in revealing the truth. Even if war resumes and he's dead and none knows about it and Israel kills more leaders, how do we know he's not leader anymore? Weird situation to be at.

Yarick May 20

That’s a very valid and legitimate point… truth doesn’t always win on Polymarket

FutureSignalv May 6

Starting to feel a bit overheated

GothABG Apr 28

whats going on with odds right now?

CompromisedGuy Apr 22

I would add Mohsen Rezaei

Jordanius Apr 23

Rezaei would be more palatable than Vahidi

CompromisedGuy Apr 23

Yup that's why I say it

Yarick Apr 22

[link removed] Khamenei is ousted by Irans revolutionary supreme guards, looks like they are not taking orders from him.

Yarick Apr 22

Khamenei is not in charge anymore, ....[link removed]

drogo69 Apr 8

Mojtaba Khamenei agreed with the ceasefire. GG

FarseerProphecies Apr 17

Just like his father posted on X after confirmed being dead for 24 hours. Other people are running their X accounts for them

DigBick1967 Apr 7

Mojtaba is a vegetable how does he have 40%? wtf?

Chickendinnerz Apr 7

He has 10 Hp and 44 % chance. 😏👍🏻

Flafson Apr 7

In theory if there is a ceasefire and nobody announce him dead by Dec 31, he's still technically the leader...

Yarick Apr 22

Khamenei is not in charge anymore[link removed]

JuicyPusy Apr 6

"Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?" Market already reached near-zero 🤣

0x5164Dd3B75B2AB257e946C405B553D4ee8b7e2b7-1773071205287 Apr 6

Mojtaba is dead 🎉

Car Apr 4

hes obviously in a bunker

MarketCuck Apr 5

fucking legend

👑_King_George_👑 Apr 6

His father was in one as well

noland1 Apr 6

no he wasnt, he refused to go into hiding and was bombed in his office

Nargili Apr 3

🙃

Shektrader Apr 2

Mojtaba is death.

pup1 Apr 1

https://polymarket.com/event/iran-leadership-change-by/iran-leadership-change-by-december-31-974-976-658-482-568