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Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
$1,072,436 Vol.Dec 31, 2026PolyBet
October 26
$21,958 Vol.
1%
4%
October 27
$30,375 Vol.
15%
5%
October 28
$11,771 Vol.
18%
12%
October 29
$50,257 Vol.
27%
12%
October 30
$23,559 Vol.
29%
11%
October 31
$378,061 Vol.
33%
6%
December 31
$40,822 Vol.
87%
2%
October 8
$17,484 Vol.
1%
1%
October 9
$28,864 Vol.
1%
2%
October 10
$37,437 Vol.
1%
1%
October 12
$21,363 Vol.
1%
4%
October 14
$48,472 Vol.
1%
28%
October 15
$18,387 Vol.
1%
13%
October 16
$13,440 Vol.
1%
3%
October 17
$71,467 Vol.
1%
1%
October 18
$4,736 Vol.
1%
October 21
$42,596 Vol.
1%
3%
October 22
$54,629 Vol.
1%
14%
October 23
$13,786 Vol.
1%
5%
October 24
$142,972 Vol.
1%
1%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, incl... This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 8:11 PM ET
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