← Markets
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$9,794,753 Vol.Jun 30, 2027PolyBet
October 31
$2,619,060 Vol.
2%
November 30
$108,063 Vol.
5%
4%
December 31
$3,060,353 Vol.
15%
January 31, 2027
$140,065 Vol.
21%
2%
February 28, 2027
$39,611 Vol.
26%
March 31, 2027
$238,424 Vol.
31%
1%
April 30, 2027
$15,920 Vol.
38%
May 31, 2027
$116,578 Vol.
45%
1%
June 30, 2027
$177,287 Vol.
48%
July 31, 2027
$4,824 Vol.
51%
August 31, 2027
$14,089 Vol.
55%
2%
September 30, 2027
$4,311 Vol.
58%
October 31, 2027
$71,572 Vol.
59%
1%
November 30, 2027
$7,975 Vol.
61%
1%
December 31, 2027
$53,114 Vol.
64%
1%
May 31
$817,235 Vol.
1%
June 30
$1,720,097 Vol.
1%
August 31
$586,176 Vol.
1%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitari... This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: May 12, 2026, 11:30 PM ET
- No recent trades