Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by...?
Outcomes
3Recent trades
40- 0x4191…569f SELL No $610.90 8h ago
- 0xfe3f…abe7 SELL Yes $18.00 10h ago
- 0x8f33…54fc SELL No $82.00 10h ago
- 0x1543…baaf BUY Yes $364.80 10h ago
- 0x40fe…3bfd BUY Yes $10.00 14h ago
- 0x40fe…3bfd BUY Yes $10.00 14h ago
- 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 23h ago
- 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 Jul 27
- 0x1583…bdde SELL Yes $1.80 Jul 27
- 0x5b63…11a4 BUY Yes $45.74 Jul 27
- 0x9e40…fe2d BUY No $182.00 Jul 27
- 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 Jul 27
- 0x9614…d217 BUY No $5.94 Jul 27
- 0xf0e0…016a SELL Yes $6.50 Jul 27
- 0x081a…66d0 SELL Yes $8.16 Jul 27
- 0xe457…5ab3 SELL Yes $8.00 Jul 27
- 0xf33e…0ab8 SELL Yes $8.50 Jul 27
- 0x74aa…2c3f SELL Yes $7.36 Jul 27
- 0xc8a2…c9b6 SELL Yes $6.96 Jul 27
- 0xccc4…4193 BUY No $1.00 Jul 27
- 0xcd96…11a3 BUY No $1.00 Jul 27
- 0x41ce…6509 BUY No $500.00 Jul 27
- 0x5219…9781 BUY No $150.00 Jul 26
- 0xa667…ceb3 SELL Yes $14.42 Jul 26
- 0x1c85…c557 BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 25
- 0x04bf…7caf BUY No $914.55 Jul 25
- 0xf6b6…eda1 SELL No $23.33 Jul 25
- 0xf6b6…eda1 SELL No $16.20 Jul 25
- 0xfd94…b271 SELL No $39.62 Jul 25
- 0x0e10…b1ff BUY Yes $3.00 Jul 25
- 0x8409…753d SELL No $128.16 Jul 25
- 0xfcef…ceaf BUY No $1.00 Jul 25
- 0x92f0…0451 SELL Yes $12.60 Jul 25
- 0xf5e6…550e BUY No $1.00 Jul 25
- 0x7663…8cd4 SELL No $3.69 Jul 25
- 0x7663…8cd4 SELL No $2.24 Jul 25
- 0x76b0…417d BUY Yes $10.00 Jul 25
- 0x3237…5658 SELL Yes $6.13 Jul 24
- 0x3237…5658 SELL Yes $2.51 Jul 24
- 0x1ccd…510d SELL No $5.56 Jul 24
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that Tesla, Inc. will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with SpaceX, or vice versa, by the listed date, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by Tesla or SpaceX within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether or when the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs. Announcements of partial sales may count, as long as the acquiring company acquires a controlling interest in the other company. A “controlling interest” refers to a change in ownership sufficient to control the company’s strategic decisions (typically more than 50% of equity, or equivalent control via voting and governance rights). Transactions or investments that do not result in a transfer of controlling interest will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or SpaceX; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Comments
how can September 30 go up by 1% while December goes down 1 lol
Could happen at some point in the future, but in the short-term, won't happen. I can think of three main reasons: 1) Tesla has always been overvalued (340x PE ratio / 200x forward PE as of right now) and Elon knows that. Tesla stock would first need to go down significantly for this to really make sense. 2) Investors tend to dislike conglomerates and prefer "pure players". That's why carve-out IPOs happen regularly. In other words, Tesla and SpaceX merged together could potentially be worth less than Tesla and SpaceX separated. 3) It would significantly increase Musk's own concentration risk. Considering all the political attacks against him, it's probably smart for him to not tie all his wealth and responsibilities into one single legal entity.
Wouldn't he want both the entities to merge and hopefully his tranches of stocks also vest(from the 1 Trillion that was given last year). I agree on risk of combined entity going down faster. But he coudl sell with the vision that he is managing them together as opposed to splitting his focus.
Are you talking about that: "The new shares, potentially worth an additional $600 billion or more, only vest if SpaceX hits two conditions: its top market capitalization milestone of $7.5 trillion, and the creation of a permanent human colony on Mars with at least one million inhabitants. " In the short-term (i.e. 2026), it's irrelevant imo. And implying that you couldn't properly manage them both as they were separated is not a very compelling/flattering argument that you would want to push yourself.
dont see how yes can be so high here, why would he merge the 2?
For control over Tesla. If he buys Tesla with SpaceX, he would get ~50% voting control
what are the downsides of a merge then?
The competitive landscape has shifted since this opened
How?
Sounds not likely. Elon can only lose by doing that.
He would gain control.
H
G Wells