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Which math problems will AI solve in 2026?
$62,102 Vol.Dec 31, 2026PolyBet
Ramsey Number R(5,5)
$1,476 Vol.
29%
14%
Hodge Conjecture
$17,703 Vol.
20%
3%
Hadwiger-Nelson Problem
$2,978 Vol.
15%
Hadamard Matrix Conjecture
$5,380 Vol.
13%
Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer
$13,507 Vol.
12%
1%
Beal's Conjecture
$2,770 Vol.
12%
Yang-Mills
$1,256 Vol.
7%
1%
Strong Goldbach Conjecture
$2,868 Vol.
7%
Twin Prime Conjecture
$1,074 Vol.
7%
Odd Perfect Number
$1,643 Vol.
7%
Collatz Conjecture
$1,982 Vol.
7%
Riemann Hypothesis
$6,335 Vol.
6%
P versus NP
$1,699 Vol.
4%
Legendre's Conjecture
$1,432 Vol.
4%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem specified in the title has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or... This market will resolve to "Yes" if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to the problem specified in the title by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement must be made by an eligible AI lab or an official representative of the lab, and must express that the problem specified in the title has been solved; announcements of partial results or progress toward a solution will not qualify. The announcement must present the solution as the work of the lab, its researchers, or its models, alone or jointly with outside researchers. An announcement that only credits or congratulates outside researchers, including researchers who used the lab's models, compute, or research credits, will not qualify. No further confirmation from the Clay Mathematics Institute or any other organization is required.
The eligible AI labs are Anthropic, Google, SpaceXAI, Alibaba, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, Moonshot, Meta, Nvidia, DeepSeek, MiniMax, Meituan, Amazon, ByteDance, Mistral, Tencent, StepFun, Microsoft, Harmonic, Axiom Math, Math Inc, Safe Superintelligence, Thinking Machines Lab, Reflection AI, Periodic Labs, Apple, IBM, Huawei, Samsung, Oracle, Salesforce, Cohere, AI21 Labs, Reka, Sakana AI, Poolside, Magic, Perplexity, Anysphere, Kuaishou, SenseTime, iFlytek, Baichuan, and 01.AI, together with their subsidiaries and research divisions, and any other company with a model listed on the MMLU-pro leaderboard (https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro) at the time of the announcement. Announcements by any other company, organization, or individual will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the eligible AI labs and/or their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 3:44 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://huggingface.co/spaces/TIGER-Lab/MMLU-Pro- No recent trades