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Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
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None
$33,547 Vol.
16%
8%
IA, KS
$10,245 Vol.
10%
10%
All 7
$11,439 Vol.
7%
4%
KS
$2,512 Vol.
6%
IA
$5,712 Vol.
5%
10%
IA, KS, ME, TX
$583 Vol.
4%
4%
IA, KS, ME
$4,422 Vol.
3%
5%
IA, KS, TX
$589 Vol.
2%
11%
KS, ME
$623 Vol.
1%
12%
IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
$3,539 Vol.
1%
7%
IA, KS, ME, OH
$1,830 Vol.
1%
5%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
$357 Vol.
1%
5%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
$508 Vol.
1%
7%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH, TX
$306 Vol.
1%
6%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
$609 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
$388 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$995 Vol.
1%
8%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$535 Vol.
1%
11%
AK, IA, KS, ME, MI
$2,189 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, IA, KS, ME, OH
$310 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, IA, KS, ME, TX
$899 Vol.
1%
12%
AK, IA, KS, MI, OH
$445 Vol.
1%
5%
AK, IA, KS, MI, TX
$267 Vol.
1%
9%
AK, IA, KS, OH, TX
$548 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, IA, ME, MI, OH
$348 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, IA, ME, MI, TX
$315 Vol.
1%
10%
AK, IA, ME, OH, TX
$3,714 Vol.
1%
7%
AK, IA, MI, OH, TX
$469 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, KS, ME, MI, OH
$444 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, KS, ME, MI, TX
$881 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, KS, ME, OH, TX
$3,537 Vol.
1%
9%
AK, KS, MI, OH, TX
$342 Vol.
1%
5%
AK, ME, MI, OH, TX
$615 Vol.
1%
8%
IA, KS, ME, MI, OH
$243 Vol.
1%
13%
IA, KS, ME, MI, TX
$2,452 Vol.
1%
12%
IA, KS, MI, OH, TX
$319 Vol.
1%
13%
IA, ME, MI, OH, TX
$519 Vol.
1%
8%
KS, ME, MI, OH, TX
$2,142 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, IA, KS, ME
$320 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, IA, KS, MI
$288 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, IA, KS, OH
$2,313 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, IA, KS, TX
$354 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, IA, ME, MI
$327 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, IA, ME, OH
$317 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, IA, ME, TX
$455 Vol.
1%
5%
AK, IA, MI, OH
$2,412 Vol.
1%
11%
AK, IA, MI, TX
$337 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, IA, OH, TX
$326 Vol.
1%
5%
AK, KS, ME, MI
$2,300 Vol.
1%
6%
AK, KS, ME, OH
$392 Vol.
1%
5%
AK, KS, ME, TX
$344 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, KS, MI, OH
$320 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, KS, MI, TX
$318 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, KS, OH, TX
$402 Vol.
1%
5%
AK, ME, MI, OH
$2,340 Vol.
1%
7%
AK, ME, MI, TX
$2,311 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, ME, OH, TX
$415 Vol.
1%
10%
AK, MI, OH, TX
$359 Vol.
1%
13%
IA, KS, ME, MI
$365 Vol.
1%
8%
IA, KS, MI, OH
$348 Vol.
1%
8%
IA, KS, MI, TX
$540 Vol.
1%
13%
IA, KS, OH, TX
$542 Vol.
1%
13%
IA, ME, MI, OH
$293 Vol.
1%
8%
IA, ME, MI, TX
$2,473 Vol.
1%
12%
IA, ME, OH, TX
$2,153 Vol.
1%
5%
IA, MI, OH, TX
$446 Vol.
1%
5%
KS, ME, MI, OH
$297 Vol.
1%
13%
KS, ME, MI, TX
$392 Vol.
1%
5%
KS, ME, OH, TX
$2,194 Vol.
1%
3%
KS, MI, OH, TX
$263 Vol.
1%
6%
ME, MI, OH, TX
$530 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, IA, KS
$2,180 Vol.
1%
6%
AK, IA, ME
$260 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, IA, MI
$269 Vol.
1%
12%
AK, IA, OH
$228 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, IA, TX
$535 Vol.
1%
10%
AK, KS, ME
$227 Vol.
1%
7%
AK, KS, MI
$330 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, KS, OH
$501 Vol.
1%
11%
AK, KS, TX
$331 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, ME, MI
$448 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, ME, OH
$362 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, ME, TX
$404 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, MI, OH
$401 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, MI, TX
$409 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, OH, TX
$694 Vol.
1%
13%
IA, KS, MI
$399 Vol.
1%
6%
IA, KS, OH
$454 Vol.
1%
5%
IA, ME, MI
$686 Vol.
1%
5%
IA, ME, OH
$272 Vol.
1%
13%
IA, ME, TX
$2,174 Vol.
1%
4%
IA, MI, OH
$672 Vol.
1%
11%
IA, MI, TX
$348 Vol.
1%
13%
IA, OH, TX
$235 Vol.
1%
8%
KS, ME, MI
$287 Vol.
1%
13%
KS, ME, OH
$342 Vol.
1%
5%
KS, ME, TX
$262 Vol.
1%
5%
KS, MI, OH
$2,237 Vol.
1%
5%
KS, MI, TX
$717 Vol.
1%
12%
KS, OH, TX
$275 Vol.
1%
14%
ME, MI, OH
$372 Vol.
1%
8%
ME, MI, TX
$1,251 Vol.
1%
2%
ME, OH, TX
$484 Vol.
1%
5%
MI, OH, TX
$377 Vol.
1%
12%
AK, IA
$954 Vol.
1%
9%
AK, KS
$406 Vol.
1%
7%
AK, ME
$695 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, MI
$287 Vol.
1%
13%
AK, OH
$231 Vol.
1%
8%
AK, TX
$271 Vol.
1%
12%
IA, ME
$495 Vol.
1%
5%
IA, MI
$1,963 Vol.
1%
8%
IA, OH
$827 Vol.
1%
8%
IA, TX
$2,483 Vol.
1%
5%
KS, MI
$430 Vol.
1%
5%
KS, OH
$599 Vol.
1%
7%
KS, TX
$2,296 Vol.
1%
8%
ME, MI
$393 Vol.
1%
13%
ME, OH
$425 Vol.
1%
8%
ME, TX
$2,243 Vol.
1%
7%
MI, OH
$356 Vol.
1%
8%
MI, TX
$546 Vol.
1%
5%
OH, TX
$2,247 Vol.
1%
13%
AK
$435 Vol.
1%
13%
ME
$522 Vol.
1%
7%
MI
$2,244 Vol.
1%
5%
OH
$3,255 Vol.
1%
6%
TX
$2,393 Vol.
1%
6%
Rules
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A s... This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs.
Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027.
A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 26, 2026, 6:21 PM ET
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