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Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

Tech Vol. $113,825 50 traders

#111%
#1097%
#539%
#322%
$113,825 Vol. Tech

Outcomes

4
Chance
#3
20%
#5
35% ▲ 5
#10
89% ▲ 4
#1
10%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x6cb1…0f6e SELL No $1.10 5h ago
  • 0xd62b…ceec SELL No $1.10 6h ago
  • 0x3908…d10e SELL No $0.98 7h ago
  • 0x2d6c…e3f5 SELL Yes $0.96 9h ago
  • 0xf18c…18c1 SELL No $1.56 10h ago
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $1.27 10h ago
  • 0x5c91…5ccc SELL No $1.43 10h ago
  • 0x09e6…24a1 SELL No $9.16 10h ago
  • 0x7b12…865b SELL No $2.63 10h ago
  • 0x09e6…24a1 SELL No $58.33 10h ago
  • 0x53f8…5ce0 SELL Yes $1.64 12h ago
  • 0x6b8a…f6a4 SELL Yes $17.00 12h ago
  • 0x72b2…5548 BUY Yes $2.04 14h ago
  • 0x72b2…5548 BUY Yes $4.80 14h ago
  • 0x128a…28de BUY Yes $20.00 18h ago
  • 0xe8c4…ea5c SELL No $5.37 19h ago
  • 0x00cd…c0ae SELL No $3.15 19h ago
  • 0xd823…12fe SELL No $6.30 19h ago
  • 0x0bd4…582b SELL No $103.35 19h ago
  • 0xda00…61b4 SELL Yes $32.00 20h ago
  • 0xda20…cb8d SELL Yes $33.00 20h ago
  • 0xda00…61b4 SELL Yes $16.00 20h ago
  • 0x7a5c…767b SELL Yes $16.50 20h ago
  • 0x3c3e…5a86 SELL Yes $16.00 21h ago
  • 0xcb58…ccd0 SELL Yes $16.36 21h ago
  • 0x9c3f…bc25 SELL Yes $0.45 22h ago
  • 0xfcf4…527f BUY Yes $24.85 23h ago
  • 0x53f8…5ce0 SELL Yes $1.25 23h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY Yes $12.25 Jul 27
  • 0x2a20…89d2 SELL Yes $16.85 Jul 27
  • 0x8e07…0439 SELL Yes $3.34 Jul 27
  • 0x97f3…0eba BUY No $250.00 Jul 27
  • 0xae91…0f69 BUY No $30.00 Jul 27
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $23.71 Jul 27
  • 0x72b2…5548 BUY Yes $8.80 Jul 27
  • 0x72b2…5548 BUY Yes $4.40 Jul 27
  • 0x9595…f347 SELL Yes $4.36 Jul 27
  • 0xe86c…c9e3 SELL No $50.76 Jul 27
  • 0x9f60…3a16 BUY Yes $2.27 Jul 27
  • 0xe457…5ab3 SELL No $117.00 Jul 27

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Chinese company owns the model that has the highest arena score, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, ByteDance, Baidu, Moonshot, Z.ai, DeepSeek, Meituan, Xiaomi, StepFun, Tencent, and MiniMax. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Models will be ranked by their arena score at the market’s check time. This market resolves to “Yes” only if a Chinese company’s model holds a strictly higher score than all others; ties will not qualify. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

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