Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Recent trades
24- 0xca23…f403 BUY No $6.17 8m ago
- 0x0e2c…9294 BUY No $6.17 8m ago
- 0x131a…e4d0 BUY No $4.52 8m ago
- 0x4621…7af2 SELL No $61.13 9m ago
- 0x5923…49cd SELL No $11.62 9m ago
- 0x9d06…c4e8 SELL No $8.97 13m ago
- 0x28b8…5e00 BUY Yes $2.00 14m ago
- 0x16b7…732f SELL Yes $115.42 14m ago
- 0xda6f…ea84 SELL No $4.55 15m ago
- 0x131a…e4d0 BUY No $4.52 1h ago
- 0x601e…21aa SELL Yes $0.71 1h ago
- 0x131a…e4d0 BUY No $4.52 1h ago
- 0x1178…772f SELL Yes $2.67 1h ago
- 0x601e…21aa BUY Yes $1.00 1h ago
- 0xb9c4…4f2e BUY No $9.20 1h ago
- 0x4879…6999 SELL No $13.87 1h ago
- 0x601e…21aa SELL Yes $0.54 1h ago
- 0x945e…f014 BUY Yes $9.00 1h ago
- 0x945e…f014 BUY Yes $9.00 1h ago
- 0x945e…f014 BUY Yes $9.00 1h ago
- 0x601e…21aa BUY Yes $1.21 1h ago
- 0xef1d…028e BUY Yes $7.00 2h ago
- 0x0855…794c BUY No $18.40 2h ago
- 0xad62…0280 BUY Yes $7.00 3h ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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