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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

SpaceX Vol. $489,599 50 traders

7-812%
5-668%
<519%
9-102%
$489,599 Vol. SpaceX

Outcomes

8
Chance
<5
18% ▲ 2
5-6
62% ▼ 1
7-8
10%
9-10
2%
11-12
2% ▲ 1
13-14
1%
15-16
1%
>16
1%

Recent trades

40
  • 0x3e56…35d5 BUY Yes $1.00 5h ago
  • 0xad53…ef24 BUY No $5.54 8h ago
  • 0x6b11…38e8 BUY No $6.69 10h ago
  • 0xd823…12fe SELL No $7.99 14h ago
  • 0xa667…ceb3 BUY Yes $0.95 14h ago
  • 0xa1e0…18a6 SELL Yes $1.03 Jul 26
  • 0x2884…d0c3 SELL Yes $13.65 Jul 26
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $5.85 Jul 25
  • 0x5a21…9318 BUY No $31.60 Jul 25
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $31.15 Jul 25
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $5.08 Jul 25
  • 0x314c…69dd BUY Yes $100.00 Jul 25
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $6.33 Jul 25
  • 0x5a21…9318 BUY No $39.36 Jul 25
  • 0x5a21…9318 BUY No $39.32 Jul 25
  • 0x9f20…12c3 BUY No $39.33 Jul 25
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $6.31 Jul 25
  • 0x5a21…9318 BUY No $39.88 Jul 25
  • 0x0380…073d BUY No $6.40 Jul 25
  • 0x5a21…9318 BUY No $36.58 Jul 25
  • 0xfd55…f905 BUY No $36.44 Jul 25
  • 0x28bf…4a4e BUY No $38.80 Jul 25
  • 0x764b…6bad BUY No $39.87 Jul 25
  • 0xa1e0…18a6 BUY Yes $1.00 Jul 25
  • 0x0314…2f6d BUY Yes $12.00 Jul 25
  • 0x65d5…dd0d BUY Yes $2.00 Jul 25
  • 0xe8c4…ea5c SELL No $14.80 Jul 25
  • 0x0b34…f5a6 BUY No $12.71 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $3.60 Jul 25
  • 0xfb30…cfdb BUY Yes $34.22 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.54 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.85 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.94 Jul 25
  • 0xd23f…94a1 BUY No $4.99 Jul 25
  • 0x29ef…ddda BUY Yes $1.78 Jul 25
  • 0x0b34…f5a6 BUY No $14.40 Jul 25
  • 0x51de…9e4a BUY Yes $3.00 Jul 24
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $6.37 Jul 24
  • 0x090a…0fa6 BUY No $6.43 Jul 24
  • 0x052e…a23f BUY Yes $2.00 Jul 24

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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