Fed predictions & odds

Fed Decision in September?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No

25 bps decrease 1% Yes No

$115.8MVol. 16 sept fomc

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps) 85% Yes No

1 (25 bps) 5% Yes No

$52.2MVol. 31 dec Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec

Fed Decision in October?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No

25 bps decrease 2% Yes No

$1.5MVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed rate hike by...?

April Meeting 1% Yes No

June Meeting 1% Yes No

$3.0MVol. 29 oct Fed

Fed Decision in December?

50+ bps decrease 1% Yes No

25 bps decrease 4% Yes No

$636.3KVol. 10 dec Fed

Fed rate hike in 2026?

65%

Chance

Yes65¢ No41¢

$8.9MVol. 9 dec CPI Release