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Next leader out of power before 2027?
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Schoof - Netherlands PM
$631,090 Vol.
90%
2%
Macron - France President
$307,992 Vol.
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$339,376 Vol.
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$280,352 Vol.
1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$497,606 Vol.
1%
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader
$654,446 Vol.
1%
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$414,018 Vol.
1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$344,358 Vol.
1%
Newsom - California Governor
$377,923 Vol.
1%
Milei - Argentina President
$289,683 Vol.
1%
Starmer - UK PM
$592,504 Vol.
1%
Trump - USA President
$488,512 Vol.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$472,796 Vol.
1%
Putin - Russia President
$358,209 Vol.
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$358,256 Vol.
1%
Lecornu - France PM
$455,733 Vol.
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$425,632 Vol.
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$321,890 Vol.
1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$337,307 Vol.
1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$394,413 Vol.
1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$343,942 Vol.
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$512,977 Vol.
1%
Petro - Colombia President
$357,077 Vol.
1%
Orbán - Hungary PM
$474,697 Vol.
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$366,538 Vol.
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$304,285 Vol.
1%
None before 2027
$357,611 Vol.
1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual... This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 5, 2026, 3:27 PM ET
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