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Next leader out of power before 2027?
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Orbán - Hungary PM
$304,381 Vol.
90%
1%
Macron - France President
$213,458 Vol.
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$239,209 Vol.
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$101,156 Vol.
1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$195,472 Vol.
1%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$1,230,676 Vol.
1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$142,333 Vol.
1%
Newsom - California Governor
$442,120 Vol.
1%
Milei - Argentina President
$137,493 Vol.
1%
Starmer - UK PM
$831,259 Vol.
1%
1%
Trump - USA President
$387,579 Vol.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$217,105 Vol.
1%
Putin - Russia President
$528,047 Vol.
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$194,780 Vol.
1%
Lecornu - France PM
$242,031 Vol.
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$544,114 Vol.
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$306,689 Vol.
1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$158,538 Vol.
1%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$245,667 Vol.
1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$151,579 Vol.
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$258,098 Vol.
1%
Petro - Colombia President
$173,912 Vol.
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$178,755 Vol.
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$156,344 Vol.
1%
None before 2027
$226,160 Vol.
1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual... This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 7:15 PM ET
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