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Next leader out of power before 2027?
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None before 2027
$286,381 Vol.
35%
2%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$435,213 Vol.
32%
6%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$67,283 Vol.
4%
1%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$71,797 Vol.
3%
1%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$55,957 Vol.
3%
2%
Lecornu - France PM
$48,228 Vol.
2%
1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$58,782 Vol.
2%
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$82,504 Vol.
1%
1%
Macron - France President
$60,594 Vol.
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$55,312 Vol.
1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$56,511 Vol.
1%
Newsom - California Governor
$55,603 Vol.
1%
1%
Milei - Argentina President
$57,330 Vol.
1%
Trump - USA President
$53,567 Vol.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$53,409 Vol.
1%
Putin - Russia President
$49,260 Vol.
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$63,848 Vol.
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$48,560 Vol.
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$48,941 Vol.
1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$45,601 Vol.
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$53,096 Vol.
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$41,901 Vol.
1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an indi... This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
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