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Iran Ceasefire predictions & odds

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

November 3

90%

Yes90%No1%

November 4

90%

Yes90%No1%

$47M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 31

90%

Yes90%No1%

November 2

90%

Yes90%No1%

$42M Vol.

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

November 5

90%

Yes90%No1%

November 6

87%

Yes87%No4%

$937K Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

63%

Yes63%No28%

December 31

39%

Yes39%No52%

$48M Vol.

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 31

9%

Yes9%No82%

November 30

3%

Yes3%No88%

$21M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

9%

chance

Yes

No

$17M Vol.

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 31

23%

Yes23%No68%

November 30

14%

Yes14%No77%

$11M Vol.

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 31

5%

Yes5%No86%

$77M Vol.

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