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Next leader out of power before 2027?
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None before 2027
$285,256 Vol.
40%
6%
Netanyahu - Israel PM
$433,643 Vol.
35%
9%
Sánchez - Spanish PM
$67,263 Vol.
3%
Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President
$55,937 Vol.
2%
2%
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP
$71,525 Vol.
2%
1%
Lecornu - France PM
$48,118 Vol.
2%
1%
Merz - German Chancellor
$58,762 Vol.
1%
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea
$82,228 Vol.
1%
1%
Macron - France President
$60,574 Vol.
1%
Erdoğan - Türkiye President
$55,292 Vol.
1%
Albanese - Australia PM
$55,557 Vol.
1%
Newsom - California Governor
$45,792 Vol.
1%
Milei - Argentina President
$54,092 Vol.
1%
Trump - USA President
$53,547 Vol.
1%
Zelenskyy - Ukraine President
$53,389 Vol.
1%
Putin - Russia President
$49,240 Vol.
1%
Lula da Silva - Brazil President
$63,828 Vol.
1%
Takaichi - Japan PM
$48,540 Vol.
1%
Abbas - President of Palestine
$48,921 Vol.
1%
1%
Sheinbaum - Mexico President
$45,581 Vol.
1%
Díaz-Canel - Cuba President
$53,076 Vol.
1%
al-Sharaa - Syria President
$41,876 Vol.
1%
Rules
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an indi... This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.
An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.
Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.
If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 10:18 PM ET
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