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Who will Trump publicly insult by August 31?
$72,657 Vol.Aug 31, 2026PolyBet
Tucker Carlson
$2,970 Vol.
90%
65%
Joe Biden
$2,725 Vol.
90%
Barack Obama
$2,489 Vol.
90%
Marjorie Taylor Greene
$9,269 Vol.
90%
65%
Nicolás Maduro
$3,554 Vol.
90%
24%
Megyn Kelly
$2,222 Vol.
1%
4%
Candace Owens
$11,665 Vol.
1%
10%
Alex Jones
$5,759 Vol.
1%
5%
Pope Leo XIV
$2,924 Vol.
1%
1%
Vladimir Putin
$2,869 Vol.
1%
1%
Pam Bondi
$483 Vol.
1%
1%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$746 Vol.
1%
1%
J.D. Vance
$913 Vol.
1%
2%
Melania Trump
$3,768 Vol.
1%
Xi Jinping
$1,454 Vol.
1%
2%
Andy Burnham
$2,035 Vol.
1%
1%
Viktor Orbán
$94 Vol.
1%
2%
Elon Musk
$1,999 Vol.
1%
1%
Jerome Powell
$2,636 Vol.
1%
7%
Zohran Mamdani
$1,300 Vol.
1%
6%
Jimmy Kimmel
$454 Vol.
1%
11%
Emmanuel Macron
$1,906 Vol.
1%
7%
Friedrich Merz
$3,110 Vol.
1%
3%
Norah O'Donnell
$2,158 Vol.
1%
4%
Kaitlan Collins
$1,295 Vol.
1%
31%
Mohammed bin Salman
$898 Vol.
1%
1%
Kevin Warsh
$959 Vol.
1%
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported.... This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. A quote post will only qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 31, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
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