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Iran predictions & odds

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 28

90%

Yes90%No1%

October 31

81%

Yes81%No10%

$29M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

53%

Yes53%No38%

December 31

36%

Yes36%No55%

$44M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?

1%

chance

Yes

No

$4M Vol.

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 27

90%

Yes90%No1%

October 29

90%

Yes90%No1%

$41M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

5%

chance

Yes

No

$29M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

No

$76M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

75%

chance

Yes

No

$2M Vol.

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

10%

chance

Yes

No

$16M Vol.

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 31

31%

Yes31%No60%

November 30

23%

Yes23%No68%

$3M Vol.

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