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Trump predictions & odds

Fed Decision in October?

No change

85%

Yes85%No6%

25 bps increase

6%

Yes6%No85%

$73M Vol.

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 24

90%

Yes90%No1%

October 28

87%

Yes87%No4%

$27M Vol.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 31

54%

Yes54%No37%

December 31

33%

Yes33%No58%

$43M Vol.

US-Yemen ceasefire continues through...?

October 31

90%

Yes90%No1%

November 30

70%

Yes70%No21%

$3M Vol.

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

18%

chance

Yes

No

$76M Vol.

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro

75%

Yes75%No16%

Delcy Rodríguez

15%

Yes15%No76%

$99M Vol.

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

6%

chance

Yes

No

$28M Vol.

Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase

68%

Yes68%No23%

No change

20%

Yes20%No71%

$5M Vol.

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